Maynard Paton | Category: My Shares

Bioventix: Outstanding 2017 Results But Cagey Troponin Remarks May Leave 29x P/E Rather Exposed

16 October 2017
By Maynard Paton

Update on Bioventix (BVXP).

Event: Preliminary results for the year to 30 June 2017 published 16 October 2017

Summary: The antibody specialist delivered another outstanding set of results, as astonishing margins, robust cash production and magnificent equity returns once again underlined the group’s wonderful economics. However, matters were tempered somewhat by management remarks about the immediate revenue potential of a new product. It could mean progress during 2018 won’t be very impressive, which may leave the current 29x multiple rather exposed. I’m hoping things work out for the best, and continue to hold.

Andrews Sykes: H1 Profit Up 28% And Now On Course For Best Year Ever

28 September 2017
By Maynard Paton

Update on Andrews Sykes (ASY).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 June 2017 published 28 September 2017

Summary: I was very satisfied with ASY’s first-half progress. The specialist hire group reported positive performances both within the UK and overseas and could now be on course to deliver its best-ever annual results. A 20%-plus operating margin and substantial net cash remain key bookkeeping features, while management hints of an encouraging second half have kept the share price buoyant. I continue to hold.

S & U: Heading Towards 18 Years Of Unbroken Growth As Chairman Shrugs Off Rising Bad-Debt Worries

26 September 2017
By Maynard Paton

Update on S & U (SUS)

Event: Interim results for the six months to 31 July 2017 published 26 September 2017.

Summary: These results displayed further “steady and sustainable” growth from the used-car loan firm. Although the seasoned executives remain optimistic about the group’s prospects and the wider economy, margins have dipped once again as the impairment charge representing potential bad loans continues to rise. Still, the 11-12x multiple appears modest given the company’s growth rate and there is a near-5% income, too. I continue to hold.

FW Thorpe: Record Annual Results Spotlight Further Double-Digit Growth As Dividend Lifted For 15th Consecutive Year

22 September 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on FW Thorpe (TFW).

Event: Preliminary results for the twelve months to 30 June 2017 published 21 September 2017

Summary: Yet again this lighting specialist has delivered a very satisfactory annual performance, with revenue and profit attaining fresh all-time highs and the dividend lifted for the fifteenth consecutive year. Although the group’s largest division appears to be performing very well, other subsidiaries did not enjoy the very best of second halves. Management comments about 2018 seemed quite cautious, too. The accounts remain in pristine condition, but I am mindful of the shares trading at a rich multiple. I continue to hold.

M Winkworth: H1 Revenue Drops 7% As Management Continues To Outperform Foxtons And Now Looks Towards Growth

13 September 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on M Winkworth (WINK).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 June 2017 published 13 September 2017

Summary: These figures could have been a lot worse, given the estate-agency firm remains dependent mostly on the standstill London property market. The major highlight derived from the statement was that WINK continues to outperform Foxtons, and it appears the group is now using the difficult sector to expand its franchising network. Meanwhile, the financials remain in order, the outlook seems relatively promising and yet the valuation is still in the doldrums. I continue to hold.

Tasty: Grim H1 Results Reveal Huge £9.3m Write-Off, But Recovery Hopes Remain As Management Finally Shows Greater Turnaround Urgency

12 September 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Tasty (TAST).

Event: Interim results for the 26 weeks to 02 July 2017 published 12 September 2017

Summary: These results were always going to be somewhat grim, and news of a £9.3m write-off suggests about a third of TAST’s restaurant estate has now suffered trading problems during the last 18 months. At least the board is currently showing greater urgency with its turnaround plan and I would like to think these figures mark the low point for the group’s finances. I continue to believe the long-term upside could be considerable if a successful recovery one day prompts further restaurant expansion. I continue to hold.

Mincon: H1 Revenue Up 29% As New Projects Set To Herald Further ‘Meaningful’ Growth

06 September 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mincon (MCON).

Event: Interim results for the six months ending 30 June 2017 published 17 August 2017

Summary: A very welcome set of results, which I calculate included the drill specialist’s best-ever quarter as a quoted company. Revenue and profit enjoyed significant advances, and it appears the group’s mining customers are now happy to place greater orders following the sector downturn of the last few years. Also pleasing was the improvement to cash flow and the possibility of certain new projects providing further “meaningful” growth. I continue to hold.

City Of London Investment: Dividend Lifted For First Time Since 2011 As New Bonus Scheme Gets Ready To Pinch 2% Of Revenue

03 August 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on City of London Investment (CLIG).

Event: Trading statement and shareholder presentation for the year ending 30 June 2017 published 19 July 2017

Summary: Earlier updates had already signalled these summary annual results would be positive. However, the fund manager’s progress was supported entirely by favourable markets and currency movements — the year actually witnessed a net outflow of client money. Still, the icing on the cake was the first dividend lift for six years and, despite the share price climbing since this time last year, the payout still supports a 6% income. The presentation also outlined the potential cost of the new staff bonus scheme, and I am hopeful the cited 2% of revenue will not eventually rise towards the scheme’s 5% limit. I continue to hold.

Tristel: Second Open Day Showcases Positive US Promise In The Car-Park Marquee

26 July 2017
By Maynard Paton

Long update on Tristel (TSTL).

Event: Shareholder open-day presentation and trading update for the year ending 30 June 2017 published 19 July 2017

Summary: Similar to last year’s open day, this was a very useful shareholder event that accompanied a better-than-expected trading update. However, I thought the lack of any reference to UK revenue was odd and I await October’s full-year results for the finer details. For now at least, the disinfection specialist appears on course to meet its three-year targets and there are some promising developments with the planned venture into North America. Plenty of optimism, though, appears to be priced into the shares. I continue to hold.

Daejan: Annual Results Defy Management’s Brexit Gloom As NAV Reaches New £102 Per Share High

13 July 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Daejan (DJAN).

Event: Preliminary results for the year to 31 March 2017 published 12 July 2017

Summary: This time last year DJAN’s management was full of Brexit gloom, but here we are now with the commercial property group declaring new highs for revenue, net asset value and the dividend. Of course, the board’s caution may eventually prove to be shrewd, and I’m hopeful the veteran executives will be able to navigate through any wider property uncertainty — assisted in part by the firm’s relatively low level of debt. The shares trade at 63% of net asset value and I continue to hold.

Record: 2017 Results Herald Welcome Larger Dividends And £10m Tender Offer To Help Company Founder’s Retirement Planning

23 June 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Record (REC).

Event: Final results and shareholder presentation for the twelve months to 31 March 2017 published 16 June 2017, and proposed tender offer.

Summary: There was a certain irony about these figures. REC makes its money by managing currency movements for clients… yet the group itself has prospered of late largely because the weaker GBP has translated into greater management fees. Whether REC’s clients have actually prospered is harder to say, as there still seems little evidence of a growing customer base. Still, I welcome REC’s decision to hand excess cash back via larger dividends, but the accompanying £10m tender offer does appear as if it was devised primarily to help REC’s founder plan for his retirement. With operating costs expected to rise, too, I reckon the tender price equates to an underlying P/E of 14-15. I continue to hold.

Mountview Estates: Bumper H2 Rescues 2017 Performance And Pushes Potential NAV To £206 Per Share

20 June 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mountview Estates (MTVW).

Event: Preliminary results for the twelve months to 31 March 2017 published 15 June 2017

Summary: These figures were somewhat better than I had expected. The regulated-tenancy property trader produced a record level of revenue during the second half to counterbalance a rather disappointing first half, and the end result was not far off the very strong numbers delivered for the previous year. I was also pleased net asset value advanced further to a new high while borrowings were reduced to a fresh low. My updated sums now point to a possible NAV of £206 per share based on the firm’s previous gains on sold properties. I continue to hold.

System1: News Of 26.1p Per Share Special Dividend Tempered By Mild Q1 Warning

16 June 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on System1 (SYS1).

Event: Annual results and shareholder presentation for the twelve and fifteen months to 31 March 2017 published 15 June 2017

Summary: A change of year-end meant SYS1 had a second opportunity to impress shareholders with a bumper set of annual results. However, this time the group admitted recent trading had been “a little slower than expected” and the highly rated share price reacted accordingly. Still, the group’s executives remain confident about the long term and underlined their confidence by declaring a super 26.1p per share special dividend. I continue to hold.

Castings: Annual Results Are Worst Since 2011 As Management Talks Of ‘Robotic Handling’

14 June 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Castings (CGS).

Event: Annual results for the twelve months to 31 March 2017 published 14 June 2017

Summary: A lack of work at CGS’s smaller machining division meant these annual figures were the engineer’s worst since 2011. Thankfully there were no worrying omens for 2018 — the group’s order book apparently remains “steady” while the second-half performance even showed some promise. The hefty cash pile and a resilient dividend continue to be shareholder centrepieces, and talk of “robotic handling” suggests margin improvements may be on the way. My P/E of 13 does not indicate a bargain and I continue to hold.

Andrews Sykes: Best-Ever H2 Helps P/E Re-Rate To 15

23 May 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Andrews Sykes (ASY).

Event: Final results for the twelve months to 31 December 2016 published 11 May 2017

Summary: These results were very satisfactory and showcased ASY’s best-ever second-half. Notably, this supplier of air conditioners, heaters and water pumps said “robust operational management” rather than “extreme climatic conditions” had supported its positive progress. The accounts remain in good shape, too. With earnings now at their highest level since 2008, the share-price has re-rated to a P/E of 15. I continue to hold.

Maynard Paton: “Hi Paul Thanks for the message. Preferring to add to existing positions has been prompted by my liking to go…” 18 Jan 2025

Paul Ahdal: “Hi Maynard, thanks for an informative write up as ever and well done on an excellent performance. Just curious on…” 18 Jan 2025

Maynard Paton: “Hi Andrew, Yes, management has always prided itself on the group’s growth history but the significant dividend lift last year…” 28 Dec 2024

Andrew Rolfe: “An excellent in-depth analysis of TSTL, Maynard. TSTL had a very turbulent month up to Christmas, but bounced back strongly…” 28 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “System1 (SYS1)   AGM attendance and Result of AGM hosted/published 25 September 2023 I attended SYS1’s AGM during September and the…” 24 Dec 2024

Patrick Leach: “System 1 was also mentioned relatively recently on the Rest is Entertainment podcast (the episode featuring Mike Tyson), again with…” 23 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “Thanks Charles. Here is the link. Two choice paragraphs in a very informative and well-written article: “System1 asks the same…” 21 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “Hi John, well spotted. I think I misread my calculator and multiplied the actual £62k (then 1.13m shares * 5.5p)…” 21 Dec 2024