Bioventix

27 February 2024
By Maynard Paton

FY 2023 results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

• A record FY, with revenue up 9% and profit up 8% albeit split between a post-pandemic H1 rebound followed by a standstill H2.

• Sales efforts were supported by best-seller vitamin D (+7%) and second-best-seller troponin (+30%), although the latter may not be too far away from reaching ‘peak’ revenue. 

• Significant long-term progress continues to rest upon R&D success with the University of Gothenburg, which has published encouraging lab results using BVXP’s antibodies to identify early-stage Alzheimer’s through p-tau217.

• While revenue per employee at a super £801k and minuscule £11k capex continue to underpin amazing cash generation, the total dividend was unchanged at 152p per share, dividend cover has reduced to almost 1x and the seven-year run of special payouts has now ended.

• The £50 shares trade at a premium 31x P/E and reflect understandable Alzheimer’s optimism alongside the general revenue longevity and terrific economics of successful antibodies. I continue to hold.

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20 October 2023
By Maynard Paton

H1 2023 results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

• A record H1, with revenue up 25% and profit up 26% helped by a post-pandemic recovery and favourable currency movements.

• Product sales were frustratingly conveyed through a broker note, which ‘estimated’ vitamin D income gained 11% and troponin income increased 52%.

• Pipeline efforts and potential continue to rest upon “exciting” Alzheimer’s research, although the work looks set to run to 2026 and associated revenue may occur beyond 2030.

• Repeating the 19% H1 dividend lift for the subsequent H2 would leave room only for a small eighth special payout, a prospect supported by remarks about taxation changes.

• Forecasts for a flat H2, troponin’s finite income and a lack of near-term R&D winners may explain why the £35 shares have not made headway during the last four years. I continue to hold.

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22 November 2022
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

• A somewhat better-than-expected FY performance, with record revenue and earnings supported by an exceptional H2 profit (+30%) that was bolstered by a post-pandemic recovery and stronger USD.

• Encouraging sales progress from best-seller vitamin D (+13%), future big-seller troponin (+81%) and sudden surprise-seller biotins (+67%) more than offset lost income from an expired product. 

• Tweaks to management’s commentary plus a revised pipeline grid suggest the development work on dementia research now offers a greater chance of becoming a real money spinner.

• The accounts remain in great shape, with an astonishing 82% H2 margin, terrific employee productivity and robust cash conversion leading to the company’s seventh consecutive annual special dividend.

• Troponin’s finite income and a basic sum-of-the-parts valuation may explain why the £36 shares have not made headway during the last three years. I continue to hold.

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26 August 2022
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

• An unspectacular H1 performance, albeit accompanied by a 21% dividend lift, after further pandemic disruption left revenue down 8% and adjusted profit down 9%.

• Muted progress from vitamin D and other established antibodies continues to leave near-term growth dependent on the fast-selling troponin product. 

• The “exciting” potential of a Tau biomarker alongside the BVXP website selling pyrene test kits suggest positive developments within the research pipeline.

• Net cash at £5m is the lowest for six years, and combined with standstill earnings seems likely to reduce the size of any FY 2022 special payout.

• Troponin’s finite income and a resultant sum-of-the-parts valuation do not indicate an obviously compelling £33 share price. I continue to hold.

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05 November 2021
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

• Acceptable annual figures that included a record H2 profit (+14%) despite the pandemic continuing to disrupt demand for routine blood tests.

• Mixed progress from vitamin D and other established antibodies leaves near-term growth dependent mostly on the fast-selling troponin product. 

• Additional research efforts suggest pyrene biomonitoring and detecting Alzheimer’s disease may be the more likely long-term pipeline winners.

• A 19% dividend lift, another special payout, 70%-plus margins and low retained-profit requirements underlined the wonderful economics of collecting antibody royalties. 

• Troponin’s finite income and a resultant sum-of-the-parts valuation do not indicate an obviously tantalising £36 share price. I continue to hold.

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09 April 2021
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

• Acceptable interim figures that showed revenue up 1% and profit down an underlying 2% after the pandemic reduced demand for routine blood tests.

• The performance appeared to have outpaced the wider in vitro diagnostics (IVD) market, with a 20% dividend lift underpinning management’s confidence. 

• Progress from the important vitamin D and troponin antibodies was positive, while R&D efforts seem now to focus on just three projects.  

• The accounts remain healthy with a super 76% margin, light demands on cash flow, a £5m-plus cash buffer and a potentially understated investment.

• Predictable income and a competitive ‘moat’ presently offset the effective dependence on just two products to keep the P/E at an elevated 32x. I continue to hold.

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12 November 2020
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

• Very satisfactory FY 2020 figures, although H2 growth subsided to mid-single-digits after the pandemic reduced demand for routine blood tests.

• A 21% final-dividend lift plus a special payout for the fifth consecutive year underpinned a generally positive outlook.

• Revenue from vitamin D gained 10% and may finally have “plateaued”, while troponin sales quadrupling within the next two years is apparently “plausible“.   

• The books remain in excellent shape with record 79% margins, robust cash flow, a £5m cash buffer and no debt.

• The ace financials and predictable customer income leaves an understandably lofty P/E of 32. I continue to hold.

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01 May 2020
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

• Very satisfactory 26% first-half profit growth led by continued demand for the group’s vitamin D antibody.

• A 20% dividend lift alongside presentation references to broker forecasts were very reassuring given the current Covid-19 uncertainty.

• The fledgling troponin product seems to have gained momentum while an emerging pollution-biomonitoring project offers intriguing long-term potential.

• Despite a part-time FD and an accounting error, the books remain in excellent shape with terrific 80% margins, a notable cash buffer and no debt.

• The seemingly ‘pandemic-proof’ outlook leaves the valuation remaining understandably rich with an underlying P/E of 34. I continue to hold.

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17 December 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

• Satisfactory double-digit growth spearheaded by notable demand for the group’s main antibody.

• Progress beyond 2020 now appears dependent entirely on the new troponin product, revenue from which remains low.

• An unsettling tweak to management’s outlook suggests the pipeline antibodies may require a further five years of development.

• The accounts remain in excellent shape with terrific margins, appealing equity returns and minimal reinvestment requirements that have prompted yet another special dividend. 

• The valuation remains rich with an underlying P/E of 28. I continue to hold.

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