Maynard Paton | Category: My Shares

M Winkworth: Annual Profit Dives 26% But Performing Better Than Foxtons

06 April 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on M Winkworth (WINK).

Event: Final results for the twelve months to 31 December 2016 published 30 March 2017

Summary: These were never going to be great figures from the London estate-agency firm. However, at least WINK outperformed larger rival Foxtons while the favourable economics of the group’s franchising model remain quite clear. True, the immediate outlook for WINK is rather mixed and there is online competition to consider, too. However, all that seems priced into the P/E of 8 and 7%-plus income. I continue to hold.

S & U: Annual Results Signal The End Of The Favourable Lending Trend As Impairments Jump 60%

30 March 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on S & U (SUS).

Event: Preliminary results and presentation for the year to 31 January 2017 published 28 March 2017

Summary: These results from the car-loan specialist were quite respectable, although a 60% increase to bad debts does suggest the favourable under-writing conditions of the last few years may now have turned. Still, the veteran family management does not seem too concerned and, encouragingly, appears more interested in developing the business towards 2028 rather than 2018. That length of investment horizon suits me just fine. I continue to hold.

Tasty: Annual Results Dish Up Unsavoury Profit Warning And 33% Share-Price Sickener

28 March 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Tasty (TAST).

Event: Preliminary results for the 53 weeks to 01 January 2017 published 28 March 2017

Summary: Oh dear — I did not expect these annual results to include a profit warning for 2017. The share price has dropped by a third and I’m no longer so sure the long-term potential here is as great as I had assumed. That said, the restaurant group’s 2016 figures were not too bad while the lowered rate of expansion looks far more achievable based on current cash flow. Everything now rests on the experienced managers to resolve the problems — which I think they can. I continue to hold.

Bioventix: H1 Results Showcase 48% Profit Surge As I Keep My Fingers Crossed For New Product Launch

27 March 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Bioventix (BVXP).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 31 December 2016 published 27 March 2017

Summary: The latest RNS from this antibody developer contained yet more bumper figures, and showcased impressive all-round growth and a record H1 operating margin of 79%. One startling achievement was that the extra £754k of revenue brought with it additional administrative expenses of only £1k. Progress may be interrupted later this year by the loss of certain product income, but the share price suggests there won’t be any problems with a new antibody about to launch. I have my fingers crossed everything works out, and continue to hold.

Mincon: Chief Exec Turns Bullish As New Accounting Policy Avoids Earnings ‘Distortion’

22 March 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mincon (MCON).

Event: Final results for the year ending 31 December 2016 published 21 March 2017

Summary: These were quite reasonable results, given MCON is still plugging away serving the subdued mining sector with its heavy-duty drills and bits. The introduction of a new accounting policy was disappointing, although the chief exec’s bullish commentary was encouraging and suggested the group’s expansion could accelerate in the years to come. Such growth ought to improve MCON’s rather average margin and return on equity numbers — at present those ratios may not be doing justice to the group’s competitive position. I continue to hold.

FW Thorpe: Impressive H1 Results As All Divisions Grow By 15% Or More

17 March 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on FW Thorpe (TFW).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 31 December 2016 published 16 March 2017

Summary: Once again this lighting specialist has issued a very satisfactory set of results. The highlight was the performance of the group’s main division, which following a few subdued years has suddenly enjoyed a step-change to its financial progress. TFW’s other divisions reported impressive numbers, too, while the balance sheet remains teeming with surplus cash and investments. Throw in a coded management ‘upgrade’ for the full year and it’s perhaps no surprise the shares presently trade on an extended rating. I continue to hold.

Tristel: H1 Results Showcase Impressive 20%-Plus Revenue Gains, Although North American Potential Remains As Distant As Ever

02 March 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Tristel (TSTL).

Event: Interim results, City presentation and investor webinar for the six months to 31 December 2016 published 23 February 2017

Summary: These first-half figures were slightly better than I had expected, with the finer details confirming December’s AGM statement had downplayed the group’s underlying progress. Impressive 20%-plus revenue advances — both in the UK and abroad — were delivered by the group’s main medical disinfectant products, while adjusted profit would have soared 29% were it not for the costs of entering North America. Sadly it remains anyone’s guess as to when those costs will first see any payback. Nonetheless, TSTL remains on course to meet management’s ambitious three-year growth projections… and the shares are priced accordingly. I continue to hold.

BrainJuicer: Bumper 2016 Results Suggest Growth Accelerated Towards 20% During H2

10 February 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on BrainJuicer (BJU).

Event: Annual results and shareholder presentation for the twelve months to 31 December 2016 published 09 February 2017

Summary: These impressive annual figures confirmed BJU had enjoyed a magnificent second half. The market-research pioneer confirmed all of its core products had performed well, including the group’s best-selling system that had suffered a wobble during H1. I’m also pleased the accounts remain first class, while it’s not surprising the share-price rating is now expecting further robust growth. However, the usual “limited visibility” of client orders remains a drawback. I continue to hold.

S & U: Why I’m Backing These Moneylenders And Their £103m Family Fortune

03 February 2017
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m reviewing my latest new investment.

The company concerned is S & U (SUS), the shares of which I purchased at an average price of 2,070p (including all costs) during January 2017. The bid price is currently 2,045p and the position now represents between 4% and 5% of my portfolio.

I have to confess that SUS may not be everyone’s idea of a great business. The group was for years best known as a doorstep moneylender, but these days it solely provides hire-purchase finance to buyers of used cars.

A lot could go wrong here. SUS’s customers generally have patchy credit histories, while its loans attract 29% interest and are secured on depreciating assets. A deep recession may well cause substantial problems.

However, some impressive under-writing has delivered an illustrious record of expansion. Notably, bad debts have been controlled carefully — even during the difficult banking-crash years. Recent trading appears upbeat, too, with many potential borrowers actually being turned away.

All told, I’m trusting a family executive team that extols the virtues of “steady, sustainable growth” — and has at least £103m riding on the share price — can ensure the business stays out of trouble and instead continues to prosper and grow.

City Of London Investment: Brexit Creates Best H1 Profit For 7 Years

19 January 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on City of London Investment (CLIG).

Event: Trading update and shareholder presentation for the six months ending 31 December 2016 published 17 January 2017.

Summary: CLIG had already acknowledged it would be a Brexit beneficiary, and this week’s update was the first to give shareholders some actual figures based on the weakened GBP. Even with client money barely moving, this emerging-market fund manager delivered a very welcome 61% profit surge to ensure the near-7% dividend yield remains safe for now. However, the usual downsides remain — not least stagnant funds under management and rising staff costs. I continue to hold.

My Portfolio: Year In Review 2016

01 January 2017
By Maynard Paton

Happy New Year!

I trust you enjoyed the festive break and are now raring to do battle with the market for another twelve months!

This first Blog post of 2017 provides a ‘year-in-review’ of my current portfolio holdings. I recap how each of the underlying businesses performed during 2016, as well as provide a few remarks about valuation.

As I mentioned this time last year, I find writing such reviews extremely useful — not least because it encourages me to double-check my investment logic to ensure I am still invested for all the right reasons!

Electronic Data Processing: 8 Months On And I’m Still Waiting For A Buyer

20 December 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Electronic Data Processing (EDP).

Event: Preliminary results for the twelve months to 30 September 2016 published 20 December 2016

Summary: What a letdown! I had hoped EDP could announce the conclusion of its strategic review within these results, but no such luck I’m afraid. Instead, shareholders have been left in the dark about possible corporate action as the underlying business puts in another dismal revenue performance. The irony is this company actually develops software for others to improve sales! I can only hope 2017 will see a generous buyer emerge and I can then move on. I continue to hold.

Mountview Estates: £83 Per Share NAV Could One Day Be Worth £200 Per Share

24 November 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mountview Estates (MTVW).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2016 published 24 November 2016

Summary: These were not the bumper results I had become accustomed to from MTVW. The residential-property trader owned up to lower earnings due to rising stamp duty, although the all-important net asset value did march higher as debt was reduced to a new low. My latest sums point to a possible net asset value of £200 per share based on the firm’s previous mark-ups on sold properties. I continue to hold.

Daejan: NAV Reaches New £96 Per Share High Despite Brexit

23 November 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Daejan (DJAN).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2016 published 23 November 2016

Summary: These results were better than I had anticipated. Boosted in part by the weaker GBP, the commercial property group declared 6% greater rental income alongside a new all-time high for net asset value. There may be a little question mark with cash generation, but debt is still relatively low while DJAN’s seasoned management should be able to cope with any ongoing sector uncertainty. The shares trade at 59% of net asset value and I continue to hold.

Record: High Margin, High Yield… And High Time New Clients Were Found

21 November 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Record (REC).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2016 published 18 November 2016

Summary: If nothing else, REC’s results are consistent — once again this specialist currency manager revealed stagnant financial progress, a lack of new business and a dependence on a handful of major clients. Nevertheless, the group sports high margins and cash-flush accounts, while the P/E could be as low as 7 thanks to the weaker GBP. Talk of potential special dividends unfortunately remains talk for now, but at least the ordinary payout yields 5.2%. I continue to hold.

Maynard Paton: “Thanks Charles. Here is the link: https://www.ft.com/content/5cbd497d-f4c7-488b-bc6c-81afcd4dad1b Two choice paragraphs in a very informative and well-written article: “System1 asks the…” 21 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “Hi John, well spotted. I think I misread my calculator and multiplied the actual £62k (then 1.13m shares * 5.5p)…” 21 Dec 2024

John Walter: “I saw your good article on Colefax but you made one glaring mistake saying that David Greens dividend is £600,000-it’s…” 21 Dec 2024

Charles East: “Hi Maynard There is a new FT article that mentions System 1. It’s called “The race to make the greatest…” 14 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “Hi Owain Yes, the property market will have influenced MTVW’s gross margin. But the board has said multiple times MTVW…” 09 Nov 2024

Owain B: “Great update as always, thank you Maynard. Isn’t the simplest explanation for the disappointing property sales gross margin compared to…” 09 Nov 2024

Maynard Paton: “Mountview Estates (MTVW) AGM attendance 14 August 2024 Below are my notes from MTVW’s 2024 AGM. All five directors were…” 08 Nov 2024

Maynard Paton: “Just a quick follow-up on purchase costs. I mentioned in the blog post above that MTVW spent £45m last year…” 03 Nov 2024