Mincon: Subdued Q4 Hidden In Satisfactory 2015 Results

10 March 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mincon (MCON).

Event: Preliminary results for the year to December 2015 published 9 March

Summary: A satisfactory set of results from this specialist drill manufacturer. Sadly the bumper Q3 reported in November was followed by a more subdued Q4, so I’ve had to trim my valuation estimates a little. Nonetheless, the shares do not appear outlandishly valued and I’m hopeful the stronger second-half bodes well for 2016. The books are still cash rich and management has started to improve cash flow, although the dividend remains at a standstill. I continue to hold.

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Tristel: These Results Were A Letdown And I Have Been Selling

24 February 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Tristel (TSTL).

Event: Interim results published 24 February

Summary: Oh dear — these results were something of a letdown :-( It seems TSTL’s projections of c%15 revenue growth have been dropped as UK turnover starts to stall. At least now we know why December’s AGM statement never mentioned sales! A startling £1m share-based payment and a signal for a pedestrian 5% dividend lift were other features I did not expect. Though I still hold TSTL, I have been selling during recent weeks and sold more today.

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Rotork: The Dividend Has Soared 2,688-Fold In 45 Years

10 February 2016
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Rotork (ROR).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

* Majestic financial history: The accounts exhibit at least 45 years of rising earnings and dividends, plus lucrative operating margins and super returns on equity

* Culture of long-term, stable leadership: The company has been led by only four different bosses since its 1957 formation

* Interesting valuation: The shares have dropped 50% from their peak and the group’s sizeable exposure to the troubled oil and gas industry could lead to further short-term weakness

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Aveva: Super Margins, Substantial Cash And Significant Exposure To Oil And Gas

02 February 2016
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Aveva (AVV).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

* Wonderful accounts: The books showcase long-term growth, super margins and substantial net cash

* Proven and loyal leader: The company has been run by the same boss since the end of 1999

* Significant exposure to oil and gas: The troubled oil and gas industry represents 35-40% of revenue and recent interim results revealed lower earnings. Further weak trading could perhaps create a buying opportunity.

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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AB Dynamics: A Test Share For My Watch List

26 January 2016
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at AB Dynamics (ABDP).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

* Leader in a niche market: ABDP claims to be the “recognised leader in the supply of autonomous driving robots for vehicle testing”

* Attractive recent growth: Annual revenue has multiplied 6-fold in the last five years, producing high margins and robust returns on equity

* Veteran management: The company founder remains in charge today and continues to boast a substantial shareholding

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Renishaw: Measuring Up Well For My Watch List

20 January 2016
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Renishaw (RSW).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

* Respectable track record: The accounts showcase a long-term record of growth, and are bolstered by high margins and net cash

* Seasoned management: The company founders remain in charge today and continue to boast substantial shareholdings

* Interesting valuation: The shares have dropped 40% from their peak and sizeable exposure to China could lead to further short-term weakness

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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City Of London Investment: 7% Yield Buoyed By Greater Prospect Of New Client Money

12 January 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on City of London Investment (CLIG).

Event: First-half trading statement published 12 January

Summary: Not a bad statement, given CLIG is an emerging-market fund manager and its markets have slumped since the summer. A particular bright spot was the group’s forward guidance, which for 2016/17 is factoring in an acceleration of new client money. However, I continue to value the shares on today’s funds under management — which suggest the 24p per share dividend and 7% yield remain safe for now. I continue to hold.   

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Record: Another Mandate Loss But Stronger Dollar Sustains P/E Of 8 

07 January 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Record (REC).

Event: Business Update published 07 January

Summary: Not a great start to 2016 — REC has admitted a significant mandate win from last year has now been ‘suspended’. Despite a more accommodating environment for the specialist currency manager, this update just adds to the disappointing client losses of late . Funnily enough, a stronger dollar appears to sustain my earnings guess even after today’s client withdrawal. Meanwhile, the shares do not look expensive on a possible P/E of 8. I continue to hold.

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Q4 2015: 1 New Buy And Up 18% For The Year

01 January 2016
By Maynard Paton

Happy 2016! I trust you have enjoyed a successful year’s investing and that you continue to find my Blog useful.

I’m currently celebrating my first anniversary as a full-time investor — and I must admit I am quite pleased (and relieved!) how things have turned out so far.

True, 2015 has seen some market ups and downs. I have to confess, August and September were not easy months for me. I watched my portfolio shrink as shares in general fell heavily… and I suddenly discovered what it was like not to have a regular salary to average down! I guess that was an experience I will just have to get used to.

Anyway, I’m thankful the final three months of the year saw my shares mostly recover. So finding paid employment is still not on the cards just yet :-)

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My Portfolio: Year In Review 2015

01 January 2016
By Maynard Paton

Happy New Year!

I trust you enjoyed the festive break and are now raring to do battle with the market for another twelve months!

This first Blog post of 2016 provides a short ‘year-in-review’ of each of my current portfolio holdings.

As I mentioned at the start of 2015, I find writing such reviews extremely useful — not least because it encourages me to double-check my investment logic to ensure I am still invested for all the right reasons!

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Tristel: This Share Now Represents 18% Of My Portfolio

15 December 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Tristel (TSTL).

Event: AGM statement published 15 December

Summary: It looks as if this medical-wipes specialist is all set to surpass profit expectations for 2016, and probably its own targets for 2017 as well. Throw in some new (to me) speculation about deals with FTSE multinationals, and it’s no wonder the share price has performed so well of late. In fact, this holding has grown to become 18% of my portfolio — and I must admit to some nerves given the premium growth rating. Anyway, I continue to hold.

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Electronic Data Processing: I’m Collecting A 7.9% Yield And Trusting A Trio Of Investors Will (Eventually) Take Action

11 December 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Electronic Data Processing (EDP).

Event: Preliminary results published 11 December

Summary: As expected, this dull software microcap reported no miracles. Cost savings should underpin the firm’s near-term progress, but revenue growth remains as elusive as ever.  At least  EDP still enjoys plenty of recurring income and has committed again to a hefty 5p per share dividend. I’m trusting the trio of North American funds that hold 28% of this stock will one day stir-up some corporate action so we can all exit at an advantageous price. I continue to hold.

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French Connection: Wow — £2.4m Compensation For Closing A Loss-Making Store!

30 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on French Connection (FCCN).

Event: Trading statement published 30 November

Summary: Phew! A pleasantly surprising update that revealed stable trading and a signal that losses could be narrowing. However, the most welcome news was the redevelopment of the group’s loss-making Regent Street store, for which compensation of £2.4m will be received from the landlord. I just wish FCCN could be paid off for all of its under-performing shops! I continue to hold.

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Mountview Estates: I’ve Lifted My NAV Guess To £188 Per Share

26 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mountview Estates (MTVW).

Event: Interim results published 26 November

Summary: Another set of bumper results from this residential-property trader. Once again gross margins held up very well while management’s outlook continues to be positive. My latest sums point to a possible NAV of £188 per share based on the firm’s previous mark-ups on sold units. I continue to hold.

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Record: 5%-Plus Yield Available As The Long Wait For Elusive New Clients Drags On

24 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Record (REC).

Event: Interim results published 24 November

Summary: A lacklustre set of results in which the board remained optimistic of further progress — but where new clients were still nowhere to be seen. This statement was particularly irritating due to higher-than-expected staff costs and commentary about an ‘increased’ dividend. However, at least my earnings guess has not changed. One day I trust REC’s currency strategies will have their day in the sun, but until then I must content myself with a useful 5%-plus yield and dreams of what could be. I continue to hold.

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