FW Thorpe: 2019 Results Declare Record £57m Cash Hoard Despite Slowing LED Sales And Brexit Reducing Profit By 10%

18 October 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for FW Thorpe (TFW):

  • “Ongoing economic uncertainty” caused by Brexit led to flat sales and lower profit. 
  • Talk of a “healthy order book” provides hope that trading won’t deteriorate into 2020. 
  • Comments concerning new products imply slowing LED growth and a plucky move into non-lighting applications.
  • Accounts boast enormous £57m cash hoard that could be used for acquisitions — or (fingers crossed) further special dividends.
  • Underlying P/E of 19 seems optimistic given recent progress. I continue to hold.

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Q3 2019: 1 Top-Up, 3 AGMs And Obscure But Important Annual Report Small-Print

01 October 2019
By Maynard Paton

Happy Tuesday! I hope you continue to find my Blog useful… and that your shares are coping well in the current market.

My portfolio continues to lag the FTSE 100. Since the start of the year, I am up a measly 3.6% while the index with dividends reinvested is up 14.3%.

I remain on the wrong side of what has become a two-tier market. While global ‘quality’ large-caps continue to charge higher, my portfolio is still full of smaller UK companies…

…many of which are undergoing potential recoveries (e.g. Getech, Tasty), experiencing standstill earnings (e.g. FW Thorpe, M Winkworth) or operating in an unloved sector (e.g. Daejan, Mountview Estates).

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[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Medica

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30 September 2019
By Maynard Paton

Dynamic growth shares are among the market’s most exciting investments.

Find a business that has expanded rapidly and offers the prospect of further earnings growth — but also has an overlooked share price — and you could be on to a winner.

Medica — an AIM-traded supplier of radiology reports to hospitals — could be one such opportunity. The company’s forecast P/E of 15 appears modest given the 300%-plus earnings growth seen during the previous five years.

Read my full Medica article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

M Winkworth: Subdued H1 Results Leave P/E At 10x As Foxtons Beaten Once Again In Brexit-Stifled Market

23 September 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for M Winkworth (WINK):

  • A standstill London property market left first-half revenue down 3% and profit unchanged. 
  • Subdued trading conditions have persisted since the Brexit vote and are likely to continue until the “political and economic uncertainty” clears. 
  • Further market-share gains have been won from London rival Foxtons, while the online competition continues to struggle.
  • The accounts remain simple, high-margin and cash-flush.
  • A possible P/E of 10 and yield of 6.6% do not appear expensive should earnings ever resume their momentum. I continue to hold.

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[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Hammerson

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04 September 2019
By Maynard Paton

Buying a share at a discount to its book (or net asset) value ought to be the safest way of investing.

Indeed, what could go wrong if you can effectively buy assets worth £1 per share for, say, 50p?

The reality — sadly — is not always that simple.

Let me show you what I mean by using SharePad to evaluate Hammerson, a FTSE 250 real estate investment trust with net tangible assets of £5 billion and a market cap of only £1.6 billion .

Read my full Hammerson article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

Tristel: 2019 Open Day Yields No Revelations Although Encouraging Sales Developments Have Emerged In The UK, France And Italy

04 September 2019
By Maynard Paton

Trading update and presentation summary on Tristel (TSTL):

  • TSTL’s 2019 open-day presentation and the associated scuttlebutt did not yield any ground-breaking news. 
  • Unpicking the accompanying trading update suggested second-half UK sales gained an impressive 12%.
  • However, the contribution from international operations was distorted by the purchase of Ecomed in November.
  • The former Ecomed boss was confident sales in France could one day exceed those in Germany — TSTL’s largest overseas market. 
  • The purchase of the group’s Italian distributor — which has expanded quickly during recent years — appears very sensible. 

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Mincon: Remarkable €8m Disposal And Promising ‘Challenger’ Contracts Offset Mixed H1 Trading And 14% Profit Drop

27 August 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Mincon (MCON):

  • Mixed progress, with little underlying revenue growth and profit down 14% due to a “softening market”.
  • Earnings were bolstered by the remarkable €8m disposal of a subsidiary purchased 15 months earlier for effectively €1m.
  • New ‘challenger’ plan of selling direct to customers appears to have started well with two new contracts won.
  • Financials could be improved after accounts show modest margins, notable write-offs and significant working-capital investment.
  • The underlying P/E of 20 is not a bargain. I continue to hold.

Read more

Daejan: NAV Reaches New £119 Per Share High But Management Remarks Of Slowing Growth Now Leaves Price-To-Book At 46%

14 August 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Daejan (DJAN):

  • These full-year figures set new records for revenue, up 9%, net asset value, up 7% and the dividend, up 3%.
  • The 3.5% valuation gain was DJAN’s lowest since 2012 following the “uncertainty” caused by Brexit. Management remarks suggested current-year growth could slow further.
  • A significant purchase in the States has lifted the proportion of US properties to 29% of the group’s estate.
  • The accounts remain conservatively financed and the property valuations continue to appear prudent.
  • The share price represents only 46% of net asset value — the lowest percentage for seven years. I continue to hold.

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[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: AG Barr

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09 August 2019
By Maynard Paton

Quality companies undergoing temporary problems can often become attractive investment opportunities.

On that basis, perhaps AG Barr is worth closer inspection.

The soft-drinks manufacturer famous for Irn-Bru recently warned that profits would be lower than expected… and the share price plunged accordingly.

However, AG Barr does boast a quality track record. During the last 40 years for example, the group has lifted its annual dividend by an average 11% — and shareholders have never seen their income cut.

Read my full AG Barr article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

City Of London Investment: Dividend Yield Still Tops 6% After Mixed 2019 Summary Shows FUM At Record (GBP) High But Fee Rates Sliding Lower

26 July 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for City of London Investment (CLIG):

  • These 2019 summary figures contained no surprises, as lower funds under management (FUM) throughout the year left revenue down 6% and profit down 16%.
  • FUM ironically ended the year at its highest-ever level in GBP terms (£4.2b), as client money once again trickled out of the main emerging-market funds and in to other strategies.
  • The overall fee rate paid by clients slid from 80 basis points to 76 basis points.
  • The accounts continue to sport high margins, a robust return on equity, decent cash flow and net cash.
  • The P/E is approximately 10 and the yield tops 6%, although the shares have traded on a similar rating for years. I continue to hold.

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[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Imperial Brands

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15 July 2019
By Maynard Paton

Imagine this. You find a blue-chip company that offers:

  • 21 years of consecutive dividend increases, with the last ten years showing 10% per annum growth;
  • Management guidance of further 10% annual dividend growth “over the medium term”, and;
  • A share price with a 10% dividend yield.

Too good to be true?

Well, that is the situation at Imperial Brands.

Read my full Imperial Brands article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

Mountview Estates: 2019 Results Show Encouraging H2 As NAV Climbs To £94 Per Share And Closer To £97 Share Price

15 July 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Mountview Estates (MTVW):

  • Brexit “uncertainties” led to MTVW’s lowest annual revenue and earnings since 2013.
  • At least the dividend was held and net asset value reached a fresh £94 per share high.
  • A higher gross margin during the second half was encouraging and may indicate MTVW is enjoying slightly stronger sale prices.    
  • Debt represents a low 12% of the group’s property estate — which continues to be accounted for at cost.
  • My sums suggest MTVW’s balance sheet could actually be worth £200-plus per share — more than double the recent share price. I continue to hold.

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Q2 2019: 1 Sell, 3 Top-Ups And Portfolio Analysis The Fundsmith Way

28 June 2019
By Maynard Paton

Happy Friday! I hope you continue to find my Blog useful… and that your shares are performing well in the current market.

I am pleased my portfolio remains in positive territory this year — although I am still trailing the FTSE 100. So far during 2019, I am up 7.7% while the index is up 13.1%.

My underperformance is due in part to owning companies that are:

  • undergoing potential recoveries (Getech, Oleeo, System1 and Tasty);
  • experiencing flat earnings (Mincon and M Winkworth), or;
  • operating in an unloved sector (Daejan and Mountview Estates).

Those eight shares represent approximately 40% of my portfolio. Add in cash of 7.5% as well, and almost half of my portfolio is marooned far away from the high-flying ‘quality’ growth shares that (seemingly) keep leading the market higher.

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System1: 2019 Results Prompt Awkward Questions After Woeful £3k AdRatings Revenue

25 June 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results verdict on System1 (SYS1):

  • An unspectacular performance with gross profit unchanged and profit rebounding due only to cost cuts.  
  • The new AdRatings service suffered a woeful start after generating revenue of just £3k.
  • The lack of all-round progress prompts awkward questions as to whether the group’s advert-analysis services are actually of much interest to the marketing industry.
  • The accounts remain cash rich and would exhibit respectable ratios were it not for the chunky AdRatings start-up costs.
  • The P/E could be somewhere between 10 and 15 assuming AdRatings one day breaks even (or is scrapped). I continue to hold.

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[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: JD Sports Fashion

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24 June 2019
By Maynard Paton

Today I am revisiting the share screen that pinpointed Games Workshop back in January.

The shares of the quirky wargaming retailer have soared more than 60% since that review…

…and I wonder whether the same screen can unearth another promising opportunity.

This time the screen returned 26 matches, and I plumped for the largest on the list — sports retailer JD Sports Fashion.

JD’s earnings per share have surged from 6p to 27p — an average of 35% per annum — during the last five years.

Read my full JD Sports Fashion article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

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