Maynard Paton | Category: My Shares

French Connection: The Cash Pile Really Can’t Afford Another £9m Outflow

15 March 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on French Connection (FCCN).

Event: Preliminary results for the year to January 2016 published 15 March

Summary: An improved set of figures following last year’s awful interims. However, the numbers do suggest FCCN experienced a weaker Christmas while the cash pile really can’t afford another £9m outflow. Online sales were miserable, too. Still, Retail gross margins during H2 were the highest since 2011 and new board members may well help the moribund management. This value investment still requires inordinate patience… and I continue to hold.

Mincon: Subdued Q4 Hidden In Satisfactory 2015 Results

10 March 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mincon (MCON).

Event: Preliminary results for the year to December 2015 published 9 March

Summary: A satisfactory set of results from this specialist drill manufacturer. Sadly the bumper Q3 reported in November was followed by a more subdued Q4, so I’ve had to trim my valuation estimates a little. Nonetheless, the shares do not appear outlandishly valued and I’m hopeful the stronger second-half bodes well for 2016. The books are still cash rich and management has started to improve cash flow, although the dividend remains at a standstill. I continue to hold.

Tristel: These Results Were A Letdown And I Have Been Selling

24 February 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Tristel (TSTL).

Event: Interim results published 24 February

Summary: Oh dear — these results were something of a letdown :-( It seems TSTL’s projections of c%15 revenue growth have been dropped as UK turnover starts to stall. At least now we know why December’s AGM statement never mentioned sales! A startling £1m share-based payment and a signal for a pedestrian 5% dividend lift were other features I did not expect. Though I still hold TSTL, I have been selling during recent weeks and sold more today.

City Of London Investment: 7% Yield Buoyed By Greater Prospect Of New Client Money

12 January 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on City of London Investment (CLIG).

Event: First-half trading statement published 12 January

Summary: Not a bad statement, given CLIG is an emerging-market fund manager and its markets have slumped since the summer. A particular bright spot was the group’s forward guidance, which for 2016/17 is factoring in an acceleration of new client money. However, I continue to value the shares on today’s funds under management — which suggest the 24p per share dividend and 7% yield remain safe for now. I continue to hold.

Record: Another Mandate Loss But Stronger Dollar Sustains P/E Of 8

07 January 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Record (REC).

Event: Business Update published 07 January

Summary: Not a great start to 2016 — REC has admitted a significant mandate win from last year has now been ‘suspended’. Despite a more accommodating environment for the specialist currency manager, this update just adds to the disappointing client losses of late . Funnily enough, a stronger dollar appears to sustain my earnings guess even after today’s client withdrawal. Meanwhile, the shares do not look expensive on a possible P/E of 8. I continue to hold.

My Portfolio: Year In Review 2015

01 January 2016
By Maynard Paton

Happy New Year!

I trust you enjoyed the festive break and are now raring to do battle with the market for another twelve months!

This first Blog post of 2016 provides a short ‘year-in-review’ of each of my current portfolio holdings.

As I mentioned at the start of 2015, I find writing such reviews extremely useful — not least because it encourages me to double-check my investment logic to ensure I am still invested for all the right reasons!

Tristel: This Share Now Represents 18% Of My Portfolio

15 December 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Tristel (TSTL).

Event: AGM statement published 15 December

Summary: It looks as if this medical-wipes specialist is all set to surpass profit expectations for 2016, and probably its own targets for 2017 as well. Throw in some new (to me) speculation about deals with FTSE multinationals, and it’s no wonder the share price has performed so well of late. In fact, this holding has grown to become 18% of my portfolio — and I must admit to some nerves given the premium growth rating. Anyway, I continue to hold.

Electronic Data Processing: I’m Collecting A 7.9% Yield And Trusting A Trio Of Investors Will (Eventually) Take Action

11 December 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Electronic Data Processing (EDP).

Event: Preliminary results published 11 December

Summary: As expected, this dull software microcap reported no miracles. Cost savings should underpin the firm’s near-term progress, but revenue growth remains as elusive as ever. At least EDP still enjoys plenty of recurring income and has committed again to a hefty 5p per share dividend. I’m trusting the trio of North American funds that hold 28% of this stock will one day stir-up some corporate action so we can all exit at an advantageous price. I continue to hold.

French Connection: Wow — £2.4m Compensation For Closing A Loss-Making Store!

30 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on French Connection (FCCN).

Event: Trading statement published 30 November

Summary: Phew! A pleasantly surprising update that revealed stable trading and a signal that losses could be narrowing. However, the most welcome news was the redevelopment of the group’s loss-making Regent Street store, for which compensation of £2.4m will be received from the landlord. I just wish FCCN could be paid off for all of its under-performing shops! I continue to hold.

Mountview Estates: I’ve Lifted My NAV Guess To £188 Per Share

26 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mountview Estates (MTVW).

Event: Interim results published 26 November

Summary: Another set of bumper results from this residential-property trader. Once again gross margins held up very well while management’s outlook continues to be positive. My latest sums point to a possible NAV of £188 per share based on the firm’s previous mark-ups on sold units. I continue to hold.

Record: 5%-Plus Yield Available As The Long Wait For Elusive New Clients Drags On

24 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Record (REC).

Event: Interim results published 24 November

Summary: A lacklustre set of results in which the board remained optimistic of further progress — but where new clients were still nowhere to be seen. This statement was particularly irritating due to higher-than-expected staff costs and commentary about an ‘increased’ dividend. However, at least my earnings guess has not changed. One day I trust REC’s currency strategies will have their day in the sun, but until then I must content myself with a useful 5%-plus yield and dreams of what could be. I continue to hold.

Castings: Revenue Up, Profit Up, Cash Up, Dividend Up

13 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Castings (CGS).

Event: Interim results published 13 November

Summary: Just what I like — a concise set of results that reports steady progress and robust financials. In fact, I could not find anything to complain about, with revenue up, profit up, cash up, the dividend up, plus the prospect of further growth during the second half. What’s more, the share price does not look that expensive. I continue to hold.

Mincon: Encouraging Q3 As Margins Hit 18%

10 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mincon (MCON).

Event: Q3 trading update published 10 November

Summary: A very pleasant statement from this drill manufacturer, which confirmed earlier trading improvements had been sustained. Indeed, revenue, profit and — very importantly — cash flow, all advanced to seemingly defy the mining-sector downturn. I just wonder if the recent appointment of Joe Purcell, son of the group’s founder, as chief exec has had an immediate impact. Profit extrapolations are now showing an interesting valuation and I continue to hold.

World Careers Network: Cash Now Represents Half The Market Cap

04 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on World Careers Network (WOR).

Event: Preliminary results published 03 November

Summary: Oh dear — my portfolio suffers yet another profit warning! WOR had already owned up to lower earnings this year, but now it has admitted to further cost increases for 2016. Nonetheless, these annual results revealed an improved second half while net cash currently equates to half of the present market cap. Bear in mind, too, that the last time this software developer invested at the expense of near-term earnings, profit eventually quadrupled. I continue to hold.

Getech: I’m Not Tempted To Top Up Just Yet

03 November 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Getech (GTC).

Event: Final results published 03 November

Summary: Oh dear — a profit warning for 2016. So much for management’s optimism from just a few months ago! The oil-sector downturn has also created extra guesswork with GTC’s valuation, while I remain concerned about the firm’s hefty development expenditure. Nevertheless, I believe GTC’s range of specialist data and services, alongside an asset-rich balance sheet, should see the firm through the difficulties. I continue to hold.

Maynard Paton: “Hi Paul Thanks for the message. Preferring to add to existing positions has been prompted by my liking to go…” 18 Jan 2025

Paul Ahdal: “Hi Maynard, thanks for an informative write up as ever and well done on an excellent performance. Just curious on…” 18 Jan 2025

Maynard Paton: “Hi Andrew, Yes, management has always prided itself on the group’s growth history but the significant dividend lift last year…” 28 Dec 2024

Andrew Rolfe: “An excellent in-depth analysis of TSTL, Maynard. TSTL had a very turbulent month up to Christmas, but bounced back strongly…” 28 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “System1 (SYS1)   AGM attendance and Result of AGM hosted/published 25 September 2023 I attended SYS1’s AGM during September and the…” 24 Dec 2024

Patrick Leach: “System 1 was also mentioned relatively recently on the Rest is Entertainment podcast (the episode featuring Mike Tyson), again with…” 23 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “Thanks Charles. Here is the link. Two choice paragraphs in a very informative and well-written article: “System1 asks the same…” 21 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “Hi John, well spotted. I think I misread my calculator and multiplied the actual £62k (then 1.13m shares * 5.5p)…” 21 Dec 2024