Maynard Paton | Category: My Shares

Mincon: Acceptable 2018 Results Show 10% Organic Growth And Outline ‘Disruptive’ New Drilling Product

20 March 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results verdict on Mincon (MCON):

Acceptable double-digit growth supported by encouraging organic sales and the purchase of Driconeq.

New ‘Greenhammer’ product appears to offer attractive possibilities through “disruptive technology”.

Year ahead to focus on consolidating operations after bumper orders created production constraints during 2017 and 2018. Recent trading not buoyant.

Accounts offer scope for improvement as hefty stock build-up unwinds, capital expenditure falls and cost savings are found.

The underlying P/E of 19 is not an obvious bargain. I continue to hold.

Tristel: Record H1 Results Deliver Wonderful 28% Dividend Lift But Further FDA-Project Mishaps Dash Any Hope Of Early US Sales

28 February 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results verdict on Tristel (TSTL):

Very satisfactory double-digit growth supported by encouraging progress both within the UK and abroad.

A new product and a recent acquisition offer attractive medium-term potential.

Continued bungling of the US regulatory project raises awkward questions about the associated consultants and decision-makers.

Accounts remain in good shape with high margins, net cash and conservative reporting of ‘one off’ costs.

Valuation remains understandably rich with an underlying P/E of 26. I continue to hold.

City Of London Investment: Dividend Yield Now 7.5% As H1 Profit Drops 21% And Tough Markets Extend Wait For Significant New Clients

18 January 2019
By Maynard Paton

Results verdict on City of London Investment (CLIG):

Monthly updates had already braced shareholders for lower funds under management — which in turn reduced first-half profit by 21%.

Tough markets have again prompted the fund manager to cut its projections, as fee rates are trimmed and costs creep higher.

As before, significant new clients are required to bolster earnings and support a decisive share-price re-rating.

I am hopeful the replacement chief executive might one day re-energise the group’s marketing.

The accounts remain cash-rich and high-margin, and the shares yield 7.5%. I continue to hold.

My Portfolio: Year In Review 2018

01 January 2019
By Maynard Paton

Happy New Year!

I trust you enjoyed the festive break and are now raring to do battle with the market for another twelve months!

This first Blog post of 2019 provides a ‘year in review’ of my current portfolio holdings. I recap how each of the underlying businesses performed during 2018, as well as provide a few remarks about valuation.

Daejan: 203-Word H1 Statement Reveals £116 Per Share NAV High And Leaves £58 Share Price At A Favourable 50% Discount

07 December 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on Daejan (DJAN).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2018 published 28 November 2018.

Summary: The commercial property group once again delivered record first-half revenue and net asset value (NAV) figures — despite the chairman’s persistent economic and political worries. The 203-word statement gave little else away, which has allowed the share price to continue to drift and the discount to NAV widen to 50%. Such a valuation has typically rewarded patient investors of this low-profile share, and I have recently bought more.

Mountview Estates: NAV Creeps To New £92 Per Share High Despite Weakest H1 For 5 Years

07 December 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on Mountview Estates (MTVW).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2018 published 22 November 2018.

Summary: The property-trading specialist revealed its weakest first-half performance since 2013 after selling eleven fewer houses than this time last year. Furthermore, the 133% investment return achieved from those disposals was below MTVW’s ten-year average. Nonetheless, net asset value (NAV) still managed to creep to a fresh £92 per share high. Meanwhile, dissident shareholders continue to vote against MTVW’s directors and may be growing in number. The £100 shares do not appear expensive on an NAV and yield basis, and I have recently bought more.

Castings: H1 Results Reveal Machining Turnaround Delayed By 2 Years While Depreciation Review Inflates Group Profit By 10%

15 November 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on Castings (CGS).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2018 published 13 November 2018.

Summary: CGS’s results were acceptable but contained several irritating drawbacks. In particular, a recovery at the engineer’s troubled machining division has been seemingly postponed for two years. Furthermore, management has now downgraded customer demand from “strong” to “steady”. Oh, and a depreciation review inflated group profit by 10%. CGS does have strengths — not least its cash pile and dividend history — but I suspect the firm’s stalled earnings will keep the shares marooned for now. I continue to hold.

Oleeo: The 4:28pm Results Revealed A Further Earnings Slump As Anonymous Tip-Off Corrects My HMRC Mistake

07 November 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on Oleeo (OLEE).

Event: Preliminary results for the twelve months to 31 July 2018 published 02 November 2018.

Summary: Publishing results at 4:28pm on a Friday is never a good sign. And sure enough, the recruitment software outfit warned of yet another profit slump. Still, at least revenue inched to a new record as the firm enjoyed greater subscription income. Meanwhile, an anonymous tip-off has set me straight about OLEE’s contract with HMRC — the deal appears not to have been lost after all. All I can do now with this illiquid share is hope for an earnings rebound. I continue to hold.

System1: H1 Results Could Mean The P/E Is Just 9… Assuming The Ad Ratings Service Eventually Becomes A Money-Spinner (I’m Not Sure)

06 November 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on System1 (SYS1).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2018 published 02 November 2018.

Summary: A couple of earlier updates had already signalled this lacklustre first-half performance. Indeed, several references to competitive pricing and re-designed products implied the advertising research specialist may no longer be the ‘pioneering’ force it once was. Furthermore, the new Ad Ratings service could be hard pushed to become a real money-spinner and return the group to growth. That said, margins remain good, there is cash in the bank and the P/E might be 9… if you believe some significant development expenditure will eventually pay off. I continue to hold.

Tristel: 2018 Profit Advances 14% (Before Hefty Share-Based Payments) As Bizarre Management Decision Delays FDA Application Once Again

26 October 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on Tristel (TSTL).

Event: Final results for the twelve months to 30 June 2018 published 17 October 2018 and shareholder presentation hosted 18 October 2018.

Summary: I was broadly satisfied with these full-year figures, which set new records for revenue, profit and the dividend. However, the statement and City presentation provided numerous little niggles — not least a bizarre management decision that has delayed product approval within the United States for a further six months. Still, TSTL’s collection of medical disinfectants continue to produce attractive accounts and perhaps their biocidal qualities have been underlined by recent deals with the NHS and Parker Laboratories. I continue to hold.

Bioventix: 2018 Results Suggest 20% Underlying Growth But Disappointing Troponin Sales Leave Lofty P/E Open To Debate

12 October 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on Bioventix (BVXP).

Event: Preliminary results for the year to 30 June 2018 published 08 October 2018.

Summary: The antibody specialist delivered yet another set of record results, with my number-crunching indicating underlying growth of 20%. However, I was disappointed to discover early sales of the important new troponin product had been below expectations — and may have left the lofty P/E valuation open to debate (at least for now). Still, the business continues to exhibit magnificent accounts while a special dividend for the third consecutive year underpins the board’s confidence. I continue to hold.

Getech: H1 Revenue Hits A 7-Year Low And For Now My Hopes Rest On A Stronger Oil Price

08 October 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on Getech (GTC).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 June 2018 published 28 September 2018.

Summary: These figures were not as good as I had hoped. The lowest first-half sales for seven years created a not-insignificant operating loss and left cash flow dependent on tax refunds. Still, the geoscience software specialist talked of a stronger second half and I remain hopeful the accounts will eventually showcase the high margins and expanding revenue the directors continue to predict. For the time being, I just have to trust a stronger oil price can one day tempt GTC’s customers to increase their spending. I continue to hold.

Andrews Sykes: I Had Expected H1 Sales To Grow By More Than 7% Following The Heavy Snow And Extended Heatwave

01 October 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on Andrews Sykes (ASY).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 June 2018 published 28 September 2018.

Summary: Widespread snow followed by a glorious heatwave were always going to prompt demand for ASY’s heating products and air conditioners during this first half. However, I did expect the equipment hire firm to have recorded sales growth in excess of the 7% actually reported. Still, operating profit gained 14% while the accounts continue to showcase high margins and surplus cash. Plus, the second-half ought to show bumper figures and help deliver the firm’s best-ever annual performance. I continue to hold.

S & U: H1 Figures Show Write-Offs Soaring 32% But I Am Happy To Collect A 4.4% Income After The Dividend Was Lifted 14%

28 September 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on S & U (SUS).

Event: Interim results and presentation for the six months to 31 July 2018 published 25 September 2018.

Summary: SUS reported satisfactory first-half progress, with the group’s main car-loan division now set to deliver its 19th consecutive year of growth. The performance was accompanied by the usual drawbacks — tighter underwriting leading to fewer new customers, and debt write-offs continuing to soar (this time by 32%). The group’s boss reckons we’re at a “relatively late stage of the economic cycle”, too. Still, I remain happy to collect the 4.4% yield and back the veteran directors who carefully steward their £134m family shareholding. I continue to hold.

Tasty: Hapless Restaurant Chain Reveals Dismal H1 Loss Although Some Outlets Are Apparently ‘Outperforming Expectations’

25 September 2018
By Maynard Paton

Update on Tasty (TAST).

Event: Interim results for the 26 weeks to 1 July 2018 published 21 September 2018.

Summary: The hapless restaurant chain delivered a rather dismal — but not completely disastrous — set of first-half figures. “Unfavourable” weather was partly blamed for underlying sales falling approximately 4%, which in turn led to an operating loss. The numbers also carried a further substantial write-down while net debt jumped following adverse cash movements. But recovery hopes still remain — costs have been cut, menus have been re-jigged and some sites are even “outperforming expectations”. I continue to hold.

Maynard Paton: “System1 (SYS1)   AGM attendance and Result of AGM hosted/published 25 September 2023 I attended SYS1’s AGM during September and the…” 24 Dec 2024

Patrick Leach: “System 1 was also mentioned relatively recently on the Rest is Entertainment podcast (the episode featuring Mike Tyson), again with…” 23 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “Thanks Charles. Here is the link. Two choice paragraphs in a very informative and well-written article: “System1 asks the same…” 21 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “Hi John, well spotted. I think I misread my calculator and multiplied the actual £62k (then 1.13m shares * 5.5p)…” 21 Dec 2024

John Walter: “I saw your good article on Colefax but you made one glaring mistake saying that David Greens dividend is £600,000-it’s…” 21 Dec 2024

Charles East: “Hi Maynard There is a new FT article that mentions System 1. It’s called “The race to make the greatest…” 14 Dec 2024

Maynard Paton: “Hi Owain Yes, the property market will have influenced MTVW’s gross margin. But the board has said multiple times MTVW…” 09 Nov 2024

Owain B: “Great update as always, thank you Maynard. Isn’t the simplest explanation for the disappointing property sales gross margin compared to…” 09 Nov 2024