Maynard Paton

Ashmore: I Can No Longer Watch After Clients Lose $2.8bn

03 March 2017
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares by revisiting Ashmore (ASHM). I first placed the company on my Watch List during March 2015.

Here are the attractions that prompted this revisit:

* Fantastic financials: The books showcase a 67% operating margin and a £601m net cash and investment hoard

* Boardroom billionaire: Management continues to be led by the company’s founder, who has £1bn riding on the share price

* Conducive (post-Brexit) currencies: Group revenue is earned almost entirely in USD while costs are expensed mostly in GBP

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Tristel: H1 Results Showcase Impressive 20%-Plus Revenue Gains, Although North American Potential Remains As Distant As Ever

02 March 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Tristel (TSTL).

Event: Interim results, City presentation and investor webinar for the six months to 31 December 2016 published 23 February 2017

Summary: These first-half figures were slightly better than I had expected, with the finer details confirming December’s AGM statement had downplayed the group’s underlying progress. Impressive 20%-plus revenue advances — both in the UK and abroad — were delivered by the group’s main medical disinfectant products, while adjusted profit would have soared 29% were it not for the costs of entering North America. Sadly it remains anyone’s guess as to when those costs will first see any payback. Nonetheless, TSTL remains on course to meet management’s ambitious three-year growth projections… and the shares are priced accordingly. I continue to hold.  

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BrainJuicer: Bumper 2016 Results Suggest Growth Accelerated Towards 20% During H2

10 February 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on BrainJuicer (BJU).

Event: Annual results and shareholder presentation for the twelve months to 31 December 2016 published 09 February 2017

Summary: These impressive annual figures confirmed BJU had enjoyed a magnificent second half. The market-research pioneer confirmed all of its core products had performed well, including the group’s best-selling system that had suffered a wobble during H1. I’m also pleased the accounts remain first class, while it’s not surprising the share-price rating is now expecting further robust growth. However, the usual “limited visibility” of client orders remains a drawback. I continue to hold.

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Shoe Zone: I’m Worried About Revenue And Have Given The Share The Boot

08 February 2017
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for possible investments by revisiting Shoe Zone (SHOE). I first placed this company on my Watch List during March 2015.

Here are the attractions that prompted this revisit:

* Owner-aligned boardroom: The executive family management boasts a 50%/£90m shareholding

* Generous dividend payments: The group will soon have distributed all of its earnings as ordinary and special dividends for the last two years

* Straightforward accounts: The books showcase net cash, modest capex and high returns on equity

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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S & U: Why I’m Backing These Moneylenders And Their £103m Family Fortune

03 February 2017
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m reviewing my latest new investment.

The company concerned is S & U (SUS), the shares of which I purchased at an average price of 2,070p (including all costs) during January 2017. The bid price is currently 2,045p and the position now represents between 4% and 5% of my portfolio.

I have to confess that SUS may not be everyone’s idea of a great business. The group was for years best known as a doorstep moneylender, but these days it solely provides hire-purchase finance to buyers of used cars.

A lot could go wrong here. SUS’s customers generally have patchy credit histories, while its loans attract 29% interest and are secured on depreciating assets. A deep recession may well cause substantial problems.

However, some impressive under-writing has delivered an illustrious record of expansion. Notably, bad debts have been controlled carefully — even during the difficult banking-crash years. Recent trading appears upbeat, too, with many potential borrowers actually being turned away.

All told, I’m trusting a family executive team that extols the virtues of “steady, sustainable growth” — and has at least £103m riding on the share price — can ensure the business stays out of trouble and instead continues to prosper and grow.   

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City Of London Investment: Brexit Creates Best H1 Profit For 7 Years

19 January 2017
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on City of London Investment (CLIG).

Event: Trading update and shareholder presentation for the six months ending 31 December 2016 published 17 January 2017.

Summary: CLIG had already acknowledged it would be a Brexit beneficiary, and this week’s update was the first to give shareholders some actual figures based on the weakened GBP. Even with client money barely moving, this emerging-market fund manager delivered a very welcome 61% profit surge to ensure the near-7% dividend yield remains safe for now. However, the usual downsides remain — not least stagnant funds under management and rising staff costs. I continue to hold.   

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Softcat: 44 Consecutive Quarters Of Organic Profit Growth

18 January 2017
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Softcat (SCT).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

* Illustrious financial progress: The group claims to have recorded 44 consecutive quarters of organic revenue and profit growth

* Owner-aligned boss: The chief executive has been in charge for 10 years and boasts a 7%/£44m stake

* Straightforward accounts: The books showcase net cash, little capex, sound cash generation and no acquisitions

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Cambria Automobiles: The Boss Owns 40% And The P/E Is 7

11 January 2017
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Cambria Automobiles (CAMB).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

* Owner/entrepreneur boss: The company’s founder retains a 40%/£24m stake, has never sold a share, and continues to serve as chief executive

* Respectable financial progress: The accounts exhibit a 10-year history of mostly rising revenue, profit and dividends

* Interesting valuation: The shares have fallen 25% from their high and currently trade on a single-digit P/E

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Q4 2016: Up 7.6% For The Year

01 January 2017
By Maynard Paton

Happy 2017! I trust you have enjoyed a successful year’s investing and that you continue to find my Blog useful.

I’m currently celebrating my second anniversary as a full-time investor — and I must admit to mixed feelings about how things have turned out so far.

True, I enjoyed a successful 2015 with my portfolio gaining 18%. But 2016 saw my investments collectively languish against a market buoyed by rebounding miners and post-Brexit USD-earners.

I have to confess, watching my portfolio slide 10% during the first six months of 2016 was not a happy experience. Still, a recovery eventually emerged and at least I can enjoy a positive — if hardly spectacular — full-year performance.

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My Portfolio: Year In Review 2016

01 January 2017
By Maynard Paton

Happy New Year!

I trust you enjoyed the festive break and are now raring to do battle with the market for another twelve months!

This first Blog post of 2017 provides a ‘year-in-review’ of my current portfolio holdings. I recap how each of the underlying businesses performed during 2016, as well as provide a few remarks about valuation.

As I mentioned this time last year, I find writing such reviews extremely useful — not least because it encourages me to double-check my investment logic to ensure I am still invested for all the right reasons!

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Electronic Data Processing: 8 Months On And I’m Still Waiting For A Buyer

20 December 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Electronic Data Processing (EDP).

Event: Preliminary results for the twelve months to 30 September 2016 published 20 December 2016

Summary: What a letdown! I had hoped EDP could announce the conclusion of its strategic review within these results, but no such luck I’m afraid. Instead, shareholders have been left in the dark about possible corporate action as the underlying business puts in another dismal revenue performance. The irony is this company actually develops software for others to improve sales! I can only hope 2017 will see a generous buyer emerge and I can then move on. I continue to hold.

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Mountview Estates: £83 Per Share NAV Could One Day Be Worth £200 Per Share

24 November 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mountview Estates (MTVW).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2016 published 24 November 2016

Summary: These were not the bumper results I had become accustomed to from MTVW. The residential-property trader owned up to lower earnings due to rising stamp duty, although the all-important net asset value did march higher as debt was reduced to a new low. My latest sums point to a possible net asset value of £200 per share based on the firm’s previous mark-ups on sold properties. I continue to hold.

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Daejan: NAV Reaches New £96 Per Share High Despite Brexit

23 November 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Daejan (DJAN).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2016 published 23 November 2016

Summary: These results were better than I had anticipated. Boosted in part by the weaker GBP, the commercial property group declared 6% greater rental income alongside a new all-time high for net asset value. There may be a little question mark with cash generation, but debt is still relatively low while DJAN’s seasoned management should be able to cope with any ongoing sector uncertainty. The shares trade at 59% of net asset value and I continue to hold. 

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Record: High Margin, High Yield… And High Time New Clients Were Found

21 November 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Record (REC).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2016 published 18 November 2016

Summary: If nothing else, REC’s results are consistent — once again this specialist currency manager revealed stagnant financial progress, a lack of new business and a dependence on a handful of major clients. Nevertheless, the group sports high margins and cash-flush accounts,  while the P/E could be as low as 7 thanks to the weaker GBP. Talk of potential special dividends unfortunately remains talk for now, but at least the ordinary payout yields 5.2%. I continue to hold.

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Castings: £23m Cash Hoard Can’t Disguise Worst H1 Results For 6 Years

11 November 2016
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Castings (CGS).

Event: Interim results for the six months to 30 September 2016 published 11 November 2016

Summary: Earlier statements had already signalled lower earnings for 2016/17, and these results were in fact CGS’s worst first-half figures for six years. The engineer still reckons lost work can be replaced, but the immediate outlook remains stagnant at best. The upcoming retirement of the chief executive brings some further uncertainty, too. Still, I don’t think good companies become bad companies overnight and the group’s long track record suggests a recovery will one day arrive. I continue to hold.

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