Maynard Paton

Q2 2025: How I (Now) Invest

01 July 2025
By Maynard Paton

Happy Tuesday! I hope the first six months of 2025 have been positive for your shares.

A summary of my portfolio’s first half and Q2 trading:

  • H1 return: -11.1%*
  • Q2 trades: 2 Top-ups (Bioventix at £24.08 and S & U at £14.64).

(*Performance calculated using quoted bid prices and includes all dealing costs, withholding taxes, broker-account fees, paid dividends and cash interest)

What a difference a year makes. Twelve months ago I was trumpeting “my best-ever H1 [+20%] since I commenced this blog at the beginning of 2015“.

Today I am staring at my weakest relative six-month performance since I commenced this blog at the beginning of 2015! Year to date my portfolio is down 11.1% while the FTSE 100 has powered 9.5% higher. I will now have to re-read whether I am a good investor :-(

This year’s underperformance follows the rollercoaster share price at System1, in which I have an oversized position because of its multi-bagger potential. That potential took a knock during April following an ominous Q4 update that implied a slowing of key revenue streams and talked of a “downside risk” to client budgets.

Let’s just say System1‘s FY results and Q1 update next week are likely to prove pivotal to my portfolio’s 2025 performance.

Newsflow from my other holdings has been mixed, with a 10% dividend lift from M Winkworth somewhat counterbalancing flat payouts at Andrews Sykes and Mountview Estates. And despite a dividend cut at S & U, the specialist moneylender has been my best performer this year!

Possibly the most intriguing announcement during the last three months was the sudden and unexplained departure of the chief executive of City of London Investment.

Abrupt exits do not occur if all is going well and I am braced for unfavourable short-term news. But I welcome the board’s decision to seek fresh leadership to help find new clients, as this fund manager’s investing style is commendable and its cash/bond returns have been impressive.

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SYSTEM1: Ominous Q4 2025 Update Revealing ‘Downside Risk’ to Client Budgets Overshadows Record H1 2025 Showcasing Upgraded ‘Illustrative Growth Scenario’ And Tantalising 20-30% Platform-Revenue CAGR Ambition

17 June 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2025 results summary for System1 (SYS1):

  • A record H1 for both revenue and profit, after Test Your Ad income gained 53%, the gross margin once again exceeded its 85% target and employee productivity reached a £229k high.
  • News of a £2m “additional discretionary investment” led to an upgraded “illustrative growth scenario“, whereby a tantalising 20-30% platform-revenue CAGR ambition could now apparently lead to a “longer term” £36m Ebitda.
  • But the £2m “discretionary” investment actually appears mandatory, given the lack of obvious ‘fame building’ options for Test Your Innovation and a startling admission of needing to further “professionalise” the workforce. 
  • Although January’s Q3 update raised FY 2025 profit guidance, April’s Q4 update revealed a sudden sensitivity to the global economy alongside ominous revenue performances from Test Your Ad, the United States and ‘data-led’ consultancy.
  • The shares trade on an estimated 15x P/E, which seems to adequately reflect SYS1’s anticipated “strong revenue growth” for FY 2026 mixed with a greater “downside risk” to client budgets. I continue to hold.

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MOUNTVIEW ESTATES: New Non-Exec’s ‘Keen Focus On Governance’ Awaited As H1 2025 Discloses Another Sub-60% Property-Sales Gross Margin, Protest Votes Reach 33% And The £97 Shares Remain 6% Below NAV

20 May 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2025 results summary for Mountview Estates (MTVW):

  • Not the greatest of H1s, as “economic difficulties” and fewer property disposals combined to cut both revenue and profit by 5%, although the interim dividend was maintained and net asset value (NAV) crept to a record £103 per share.
  • Property sales delivered a sub-60% gross margin for the fourth consecutive H1, which increasingly suggests ‘reversionary’ gains from regulated tenancies have inherently reduced and/or MTVW has simply overpaid for many past purchases.
  • Properties bought and sold following the 2014 valuation continue to realise modest gains, with no obvious adverse trends concerning transaction costs and tenancy mix. The absence of another valuation has now left two non-execs ‘short-changed’ by selling shares below NAV.
  • A new non-exec with a “keen focus on governance, risk and compliance” provides hope the board may adopt some fresh thinking on shareholder engagement, estate valuations and director pay, especially as protest votes have reached a record 33% of the share count. 
  • Recent share purchases by the chief executive may have signalled a tantalising buying opportunity, while the £97 price now offers a 5.4% income, trades 6% below NAV and may be worth £169 if the group’s properties were all sold today at their ‘vacant possession’ value. I continue to hold.

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[ShareScope] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: ELIXIRR INTERNATIONAL

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can enjoy a 20% first-year discount! Click here for details >>

17 May 2025
By Maynard Paton

I remarked the other month how most flotations had suffered badly during the last few years.

ShareScope lists 233 shares that joined the stock market since the start of 2020, of which 178 (76%) currently trade below their listing price — including 72 that have lost 80% or more of their value.

I consequently devised a ShareScope screen to rummage through the IPO carnage to find potential buying opportunities.

I sought companies that had:

  • Floated since the start of 2020;
  • A market cap of more than £50 million;
  • Net cash;
  • A positive operating margin;
  • Director holdings of 10% or more, and;
  • A GBP-denominated share price.

When I first employed this screen I selected BIG Technologies, in part because of its then 49% post-IPO share-price slump. BIG’s shares then took a further tumble after firing its chief executive for misleading the board!

I therefore decided this time to study a flotation winner!

(Source: ShareScope)

I selected Elixirr International entirely because of its impressive 244% post-IPO share-price gain.

Let’s take a closer look.

Read my full ELIXIRR INTERNATIONAL article for ShareScope >>

Maynard Paton

ANDREWS SYKES: Shareholders Left To Collect 5% Yield While Awaiting Beneficial/Extreme Weather After ‘Milder Winter Temperatures’ Create Standstill H1 2024 And Keep Interim Dividend At 11.9p Per Share For 11th Consecutive Year

29 April 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2024 results summary for Andrews Sykes (ASY):

  • A standstill performance, as “milder winter temperatures and a slow start to the summer cooling season” trimmed revenue by 1%, left profit unchanged and kept the dividend at 11.9p per share for the eleventh consecutive H1.  
  • Both the UK (revenue down 2%) and Europe (revenue down 4%) succumbed to the moderate weather, while fresh management continued the Middle East’s welcome turnaround (revenue up 38%).
  • Controlled cost of sales, lower depreciation plus disposal gains led to a healthy 25% operating margin — the highest for an H1 since 2008 — to underline the group’s premium 24/7/365 “emergency” service.
  • The very respectable accounts now showcase net cash at £21m, but the figure may have to reach £30m before the 91% Murray family shareholders declare another special dividend.   
  • A possible 12x P/E and 5.3% yield do not appear expensive as beneficial/extreme weather conditions are awaited, although the limited free float and distinctive corporate governance have rarely led to a premium rating. I continue to hold.

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M WINKWORTH: £350k One-Off Fee Helps H1 2024 Profit Gain 24% As Promising H2 2024 And Company-Owned Offices Targeting FY 2025 ‘Good Profitability’ Support 6%-Plus Dividend Yield

15 April 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2024 results summary for M Winkworth (WINK):

  • Greater “sales agreed” activity alongside a one-off £350k fee supported an improved H1, with franchise-network income up 6%, revenue up 20%, profit up 24% and the dividend up 3%. 
  • The targeting of “good profitability” at all four company-owned offices for FY 2025 is very encouraging, especially as three of the offices reported losses during FY 2023 and the returns from the fourth have been superb once a profit was achieved.
  • Although four branches were re-franchised to new agents and a further seven look set to follow, WINK’s franchise network continues to lose ground to rival Foxtons as progress seemingly becomes more dependent on higher sales values and rising property rents.
  • Dividend cover around 1.1x and net cash equivalent to a sizeable 41% of trailing twelve-month revenue continue to emphasise the board’s preference for income and the cautious approach to franchise-network expansion. 
  • Post-H1 statements indicating a promising H2 2024 and a possible bumper Q1 2025 support a 6%-plus dividend yield, accompanied perhaps by vague bid potential following last year’s appointments of two M&A non-execs. I continue to hold.

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Q1 2025: Finding Ammunition For My Elephant Gun

02 April 2025
By Maynard Paton

Happy Wednesday! I trust your shares have performed better than mine since the start of the year. 

A summary of my portfolio’s first quarter:

  • Q1 return: -6.5%*
  • Q1 trades: 1 Top-up (Bioventix at £30) and 1 Sell (Tristel at 352p).

(*Performance calculated using quoted bid prices and includes all dealing costs, withholding taxes, broker-account fees, paid dividends and cash interest)

I will do well to catch up with the FTSE 100 during 2025. The blue-chip index has powered 6% higher during this Q1, outperforming every one of my holdings. Indeed, seven of my shares declined despite the rising market.

Newsflow from my holdings has been mostly unremarkable, as demonstrated by the modest dividend improvements or unchanged payouts at Bioventix, City of London Investment, Mincon, FW Thorpe and M Winkworth. S & U has meanwhile continued to trim its dividend following adverse regulatory matters. 

The subdued progress has left most of my holdings trading at prices first seen during 2017 or before, with their ratings the lowest for years. I am not short of top-up ideas.

Picking winners has certainly become harder. A quick check on ShareScope reveals only 191 of the 552 FTSE All-Share constituents — 35% — delivered share-price gains during this Q1. Over the last three years, the proportion is a woeful 33%.

You may not be surprised to learn that picking AIM winners has been even harder. During the last three years, just 20% of AIM-traded shares have moved higher. 

Nonetheless, buyers remain out there for the right opportunities. I wrote about Filtronic recently, mostly to remind myself that multi-baggers do still exist!

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S & U: Court of Appeal Ruling Overshadows 40% H1 2025 Profit Slump As £14 Shares At 0.73x NAV Imply Up To £63m Potential ‘Secret’-Commission Compensation Liability

29 March 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2025 results summary for S & U (SUS):

  • Yet more figures blighted by ongoing regulatory matters, with H1 profit slumping 40% and the dividend cut once again after “voluntary” motor-finance restrictions led to loan impairments surging 162%.
  • The H1 performance was overshadowed by the Court of Appeal deeming the FCA’s disclosure rules on car-loan commissions to be unlawful. The Supreme Court will hear the cases next week and the “definitive pronouncement” declared thereafter.
  • Given the £14 shares trade at 0.73x NAV — a rating last seen at the banking-crash lows — investors have seemingly decided SUS could be liable to repay ‘secret’ commissions of up to £63m… although the “appropriate compensation” could arguably be minimal.
  • Debt headroom of £88m, a shift towards “lower-risk” motor-finance customers alongside “sparkling” progress at the (unregulated) property-loan division (H1 profit up 42%!) may help SUS muddle through any “industry-wide redress scheme“. 
  • Then again, post-H1 updates did not bode well following another dividend cut and the motor-finance division curtailing lending by 33% and suffering a further 50% profit reduction. I continue to hold. 

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[ShareScope] Small-Cap Spotlight Report: FILTRONIC

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can enjoy a 20% first-year discount! Click here for details >>

22 March 2025
By Maynard Paton

“London Stock Exchange boss warns AIM is under threat of collapse“

“London AIM market should be axed for failing to win tech floats, say think-tanks“

“Why AIM is in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling doom loop“

Despite all the gloomy headlines, AIM can still deliver amazing returns for investors prepared to unearth revitalised companies the crowd has dismissed.

The shares of Filtronic in particular have defied the junior market’s negative press, recently topping 100p to deliver a ten-bagger for anyone lucky enough to purchase at just 10p only three years ago:

(Source: ShareScope)

But just how did this specialist developer of communications equipment manage to deliver such wonderful gains?

And could any of us have spotted this AIM multi-bagger opportunity beforehand?

Let’s take a closer look.

Read my full FILTRONIC article for ShareScope >>

Maynard Paton

BIOVENTIX: £155k R&D Revenue And Commencement Of ‘Large-Scale Production’ Signal Increasing Alzheimer’s Success After Troponin Error Creates Below-Expectations FY 2024 And Leaves Dividend Yield Exceeding 5%

04 March 2025
By Maynard Paton

FY 2024 results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

  • A record FY, showing revenue up 6% and profit up 5%, although the 3p per share reduction to the H2 dividend illustrated a below-expectations performance following an unfortunate troponin-royalty error.
  • Sales progress was very mixed, with best-seller vitamin D up just 1%, the now “mature” troponin up only 3%, the once-popular testosterone down 29%, 30-year-old T3 up 21% and general Chinese royalties becoming “more significant“.
  • R&D revenue of £155k, the commencement of “large-scale production“, promising snippets from scientific papers alongside ongoing Quanterix promotion suggest BVXP’s Alzheimer’s work has increasing potential to become a substantial commercial success.
  • The wonderful economics of the antibody portfolio continue, as this FY displayed a majestic 78% operating margin, a super £800k revenue per employee, net cash equivalent to a hefty 44% of revenue and capex of just £16k.
  • The £30 shares currently trade at their lowest P/E since 2016, offer a 5%-plus yield for the very first time and might value the Alzheimer’s R&D at a very pessimistic zero. I continue to hold.

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[ShareScope] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: BIG TECHNOLOGIES

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can enjoy a 20% first-year discount! Click here for details >>

22 February 2025
By Maynard Paton

“It’s Probably Overpriced“

IPOs have suffered badly during the last few years.

Buoyant markets encouraged lots of companies to go public at optimistic valuations…

…only for economic conditions to turn and valuations to quickly deflate.

ShareScope lists 225 shares that joined the stock market since the start of 2020, of which 168 (75%) currently trade below their flotation price — including 66 that have lost 80% or more of their value.

But could the flotation carnage now be hiding good buying opportunities?

I have devised a new ShareScope screen to search among the IPO rubble, seeking companies that have:

  • Floated since the start of 2020;
  • A market cap of more than £50 million;
  • Net cash (i.e. net borrowings excluding IFRS 16 finance leases of less than zero);
  • A positive operating margin (i.e. are profitable);
  • Director holdings of 10% or more, and;
  • A GBP-denominated share price.
(Source: ShareScope)

ShareScope returned 11 matches, and I selected BIG Technologies because of its remarkable 51% operating margin and hefty 49% post-IPO share-price dive.

Let’s take a closer look.

Read my full BIG TECHNOLOGIES article for ShareScope >>

Maynard Paton

FW THORPE: FY 2024 Declares 22nd Consecutive Annual Dividend Increase After ‘Impressive’ Stock Procurement Improves Gross Margin To 49% While Subdued Outlook And Modest LTIP Targets Leave P/E At Lowest For 10 Years

18 February 2025
By Maynard Paton

FY 2024 results summary for FW Thorpe (TFW):

  • A 1% revenue decline was countered by a 9% profit advance, with H2 profit improving a remarkable 17% to help raise the ordinary dividend 5% and extend the run of annual payout advances to 22 years.
  • TFW’s gross margin improving to 49% through “impressive” stock procurement led to some welcome operating margins, including 20% for Thorlux, 23% for Lightronics/Famostar and 19% for Zemper’s H2, although profitability at the group’s Other subsidiaries remains poor.
  • Very satisfactory cash flow supported cash finishing £18m higher at £53m, which triggered the third special dividend in four years and almost certainly enhances the likelihood of further acquisition activity.  
  • The slimmed-down board with its M&A expertise may wish to consider the success of acquisition specialist Halma, which assesses its ‘capital allocation’ through return on total invested capital and includes the KPI as an LTIP measure.
  • The 15x P/E is the lowest rating for ten years, and seems more influenced by TFW’s subdued near-term prospects and modest LTIP targets rather than the group’s distinguished operating history and longer-term demand for energy-saving lighting. I continue to hold.

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CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT: Subdued FY 2024 Admits $320m FuM Outflow, 5-7% Client CAGRs And KPI Failure To Reinforce ‘Value Trap’ Credentials With Barely Covered Dividend Yielding 9%

29 January 2025
By Maynard Paton

FY 2024 results summary for City of London Investment (CLIG):

  • Another very subdued performance, showing revenue up 1%, profit down 1% and the annual dividend unchanged for the third consecutive FY after client withdrawals of $320m left average funds under management (FuM) just 3% higher.
  • “Constructive meetings” continue with 31.5% shareholder George Karpus, who now carries “high hopes and high expectations” for CLIG — despite the group failing to achieve its sole KPI after client-fee rates dropped 3bps while salaries climbed an average 6%.
  • Long-term client CAGRs of just 5-7% may reflect the inherent limitations of CLIG “exploiting the discount volatility” of UK investment trusts, and raises awkward comparisons to cash/bonds, the S&P 500 and sector activist Saba Capital.
  • While new clients remain elusive, plans to reduce expenses by $2.5m — albeit mostly through non-staff costs — alongside a stronger USD should help sustain this FY’s barely covered GBP dividend.
  • The subsequent H1 2025 witnessing further client withdrawals of $564m reinforces CLIG’s ‘value trap’ credentials, underlined by a share price that is back to 2007 levels and currently paying a 9% yield. I continue to hold.

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[ShareScope] Small-Cap Spotlight Report: PINEWOOD TECHNOLOGIES

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can enjoy a 20% first-year discount! Click here for details >>

25 January 2025
By Maynard Paton

Investment ideas can emerge from the unlikeliest of sources.

I booked my car for a service the other month and the confirmation email was sent by Pinewood DMS:

DMS stands for ‘dealer management software’ and Pinewood Technologies is one of two dominant suppliers of such systems within the UK.

A DMS allows car dealers to handle all aspects of their business — such as vehicle sales, customer enquiries, workshop appointments, parts ordering, accounts processing and marketing campaigns — within a single IT package.

Pinewood was part of car dealer Pendragon for 25 years, but for the last twelve months has operated independently and now describes itself as a “pure-play SAAS business with an accelerated growth plan“.

The growth plan centres upon sophisticated IT displacing outdated competitor systems — with US dealers in particular a lucrative target.

High levels of recurring revenue earned through a ‘scalable platform’ — alongside the prospect of bumper contract wins — have meanwhile led to very attractive profit guidance.

Let’s take a closer look.

Read my full PINEWOOD TECHNOLOGIES article for ShareScope >>

Maynard Paton

Q4 2024: Up 22.4% For 2024

03 January 2025
By Maynard Paton

Happy 2025! I hope your shares prospered last year and you continue to find my blog useful.

A summary of my portfolio’s 2024:

  • Total return of +22.4%*;
  • Individual returns ranged from up 120% for System1 to down 28% for Mincon;
  • Three shares were topped-up: City of London Investment, Mountview Estates and S & U;
  • No shares were top-sliced or sold entirely, and;
  • No new shares were purchased.

(*Performance calculated using quoted bid prices and includes all dealing costs, withholding taxes, broker-account fees, paid dividends and cash interest)

I publish a portfolio review after every quarter (Q1, Q2 and Q3), and this post recaps my October/November/December activity as well as my 2024 performance.

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