Maynard Paton

Q3 2015: 1 New Buy, 1 Top-Up And 3 Top-Slices

30 September 2015
By Maynard Paton

Happy Wednesday! I trust you have not lost too much money in this choppy market and that you continue to find my Blog useful.

I’ve been in this full-time investment lark for nine months now — and I must admit the last few weeks have been somewhat testing.

Sure, I have invested through corrections and bear markets before — but such downturns are far easier to cope with when I could use my regular salary to average down!

Now without a salary, I’ve come to appreciate why so many private investors ‘panic sell’. They too are living off their portfolios and wish to preserve their capital… because they do not want to go back to work!

All that said, my portfolio of late has not been a total disaster and I think I am still up on the year so far. So finding paid employment is not on the cards just yet!

Recent market movements have meant that I have become a little more active with my portfolio. I have top-sliced a few positions in order to free up some cash for reinvestment, and bought a brand-new holding.

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Andrews Sykes: Interim Results Sustain 7.4% Yield

30 September 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Andrews Sykes (ASY).

Event: Interim results published 30 September.

Summary: Not a bad set of results, although the performance was flattered by the poor figures of 2014. The highlight was the positive outlook statement and the prospect of further second-half progress. While ASY may find long-term growth elusive, the accounts remain solid and the company continues to pay out all of its earnings as a dividend. I continue to hold.

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French Connection: Grim Figures Confirm Basket-Case Status

21 September 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on French Connection (FCCN).

Event: Interim results published 21 September

Summary: A grim set of figures that had been flagged by an earlier profit warning. News of further store closures and maintained gross margins were reassuring in the circumstances, but the real saving grace was the relatively positive outlook for the second half. There’s still a chance this share could one day prove to be a bargain, but for now its basket-case status remains intact. I continue to hold.

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FW Thorpe: More Dependable Results With A Super H2

17 September 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on FW Thorpe (TFW).

Event: Preliminary results published 17 September

Summary: Yet another dependable set of figures, with revenue, profit and the dividend reporting further advances — and all accompanied by the usual unpretentious management commentary. That said, it is TFW’s smaller divisions that are making the greatest strides at present — and it remains to be seen whether they can sustain such progress. Elsewhere, a recent acquisition is doing well and the balance sheet remains flush with cash. I continue to hold.

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City Of London Investment: Why I’ve Reduced My Holding

15 September 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on City of London Investment (CLIG).

Event: Final results and annual report published 14 September.

Summary: No surprises here, as everything important was revealed within July’s summary figures. However, CLIG did confirm its funds under management had dropped by 17% during the recent market downturn and my sums are now starting to ask questions about the 24p per share dividend. All told, I do not feel comfortable with the current valuation and have therefore decided to reduce my holding.

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M Winkworth: Rental Goal Looks Promising Amid Lacklustre Results

09 September 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on M Winkworth (WINK).

Event: Interim results published 8 September

Summary: A somewhat lacklustre set of results, blamed on a nervous pre-election housing market and extra costs associated with a corporate-relocation department. While the potential of additional lettings income looks promising, cash generation remains disappointing. I still like the simplicity of this franchising business, but must admit to having doubts about the size of its full potential. I continue to hold.

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Tasty: Accelerated Expansion Supports Multi-Bagger Hopes 

08 September 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Tasty (TAST).

Event: Interim results published 8 September

Summary: A very satisfactory set of results, with highlights including higher margins and a further acceleration of new restaurant openings. It certainly appears as if TAST will expand using debt rather than equity, though further borrowings will be needed for the business to become self-funding. I remain convinced the family management here can replicate its earlier success at Prezzo (PRZ) and can perhaps quadruple TAST’s market cap. I continue to hold.

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Castings: A Rare Combination In The Current Market

04 September 2015
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Castings (CGS).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

Respectable financials: The accounts showcase a dependable dividend, net cash and property assets
Straightforward management: The executives do not collect grandiose wages nor own any options
Interesting valuation: The shares could offer a possible P/E of 11

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Record: I’ve Slashed My Earnings Guess By 27%

25 August 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Record (REC).

Event: Business update published 25 August

Summary: A very disappointing statement. A major client has withdrawn $2.8bn from REC’s administration and I’ve had to slash my earnings guess by 27%. The shares have dropped significantly, though at 29p they remain valued at 10x possible profits and yield 5.7%. The business remains high margin and cash rich, but sadly still dependent on a small number of customers. I continue to hold.

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Mincon: Tough Results Showcase Improved Q2, 15% Margins And £24m Net Cash

24 August 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Mincon (MCON).

Event: Interim results published 19 August.

Summary: These figures were not too disappointing given MCON’s lacklustre first-quarter statement. A definite improvement occurred during Q2 and 15% margins suggest MCON retains a respectable competitive position. Nonetheless, the firm’s acquisition strategy remains unproven and working-capital demands are still very high. While a P/E valuation of 12-14 does not tempt me to top up, I continue to hold.

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French Connection: Reasons To Keep Holding (As Well As Avoid!) This Frustrating Investment 

Today I’m summarising my current thoughts on French Connection (FCCN), a small-cap fashion retailer that continues to suffer from poor trading and which remains an under-whelming investment in my portfolio.

You can read my earlier Blog posts on FCCN here. But to cut to the chase, a trading statement in April owned up to weak retail sales and it’s likely the current year will witness FCCN’s seventh overall annual loss in eight years.

One day I’m sure a sustained turnaround here could deliver an exceptional share-price gain — although there is the real chance this company may never actually turn…

Anyway, prompted by FCCN’s share price falling steeply of late, I’ve weighed up the various pros and cons of what has become a very frustrating business and investment. Just to confirm, I continue to hold the shares.

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Watch List: Updates On Ashmore, Bioventix, Daejan, Goodwin, Latchways And Shoe Zone

5 August 2015
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m reviewing the six shares that reside on my Watch List. After all, there’s no point in me operating a Watch List if I don’t occasionally review the progress of my potential investments — and ensure I’m all ready to buy when their valuations become more attractive!

So here is what’s happened at my Watch List companies since the initial write-ups.

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Panther Securities: The Boss Has Waived His Pay For 8 Years

30 July 2015
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Panther Securities (PNS).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

Thin-cat management: The boss last collected a salary during 2006
Resilient dividend: The payout has not been cut following the group’s 1994 flotation
Interesting valuation: The shares trade at 86% of net asset value

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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City Of London Investment: 7% Income Confirmed In Double-Quick Time

15 July 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on City of London Investment (CLIG).

Event: Summary annual results published 15 July

Summary: A set of satisfactory outline results, commendably issued once again in double-quick time. But it was no real surprise to see CLIG downgrade some of its earlier growth assumptions, while new client money continues to be required to help earnings recover and lift the dividend. The accounts remain great and for now I’m content with the 24p per share payout and 7% income. I continue to hold.

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J Smart & Co: 20 Years Of Dividend Advances But Still Not For Me

10 July 2015
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at J Smart & Co (SMJ).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

Loyal management: The Smart family has controlled the business for decades
Dependable dividend: The payout has advanced every year since at least 1994
Interesting valuation: The shares trade at 52% of net asset value

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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