[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: BEST OF THE BEST

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can claim one month of free data. Click here for details.

10 March 2021
By Maynard Paton

One of my favourite SharePad screens identifies good-quality companies that have grown without acquisition. The screen uses the following filter criteria:

  • Positive five-year turnover and operating profit growth;
  • A minimum 15% for both return on equity and operating margin;
  • Net borrowing of no more than zero (i.e. a net cash position), and;
  • A five-year acquisition spend of zero.

I ran the screen the other day and found 28 matches. I studied Best of the Best — or BOTB as it now calls itself — because I was already aware of:

  • Some very remarkable financials;
  • An extraordinary share-price performance, and;
  • Management deciding not to sell the business despite “extensive talks with a range of parties”.

Read my full Best of the Best article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

TRISTEL: P/E Reaches Stratospheric 48x As H1 Figures Reveal Profit Improving Up To 31% And Headcount Increasing 19% To Prepare For Future Growth

09 March 2021
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Tristel (TSTL):

  • A satisfactory pandemic-assisted performance, with revenue up 14% and profit up between 12% and 31% depending on the adjustments made.
  • Sales were bolstered by Brexit stock-piling, which will unwind during H2, with underlying UK progress still difficult to interpret.
  • Overseas sales improved a useful 20% although the United States regulatory project and other ventures remain very slow burners.
  • The 21% operating margin seems impressive in light of “one-off” payroll costs and the headcount increasing 19% to prepare for future growth. 
  • The 48x P/E looks stratospheric, but permanently greater demand for hospital disinfectants, further expansion plus growing economies of scale may justify a lofty rating. I continue to hold.

Read more

CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT: H1 Figures Reveal Record $10.9b FuM And Astonishing 55% Margin But Client ‘Rebalancing’ Keeps P/E Stuck At 11x

24 February 2021
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for City of London Investment (CLIG):

  • Very buoyant markets alongside the Karpus merger helped funds under management (FuM) reach a record $10.9b and lift the dividend by 10%.
  • Client ‘rebalancing’ led to FuM withdrawals and, despite fledgling strategies attracting new money, overall fund flows remain frustratingly low. 
  • Recent leadership retirements have not led to any dramatic changes and shareholder information has remained reassuringly comprehensive.
  • The Karpus merger has raised the group margin to an astonishing 55%, but future bonus-pool arrangements could reduce such profitability.
  • The possible P/E is 11 and near-term yield might top 7%, although the shares have been valued modestly for years and a sustained re-rating remains very elusive. I continue to hold.

Read more

[SharePad] Small-Cap Spotlight Report: ARGO BLOCKCHAIN

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can claim one month of free data. Click here for details.

24 February 2021
By Maynard Paton

Let’s start with a wealth warning:

  • This article covers bitcoin miner Argo Blockchain;
  • I am not a bitcoin expert;
  • The bitcoin price is highly unpredictable;
  • Argo’s share price is highly unpredictable, and;
  • Argo issues frequent updates.

Still, Argo is a company worth studying… not least because the shares have soared 25-fold in just two months:

(Source: SharePad)

Let’s find out what is happening.

Read my full Argo Blockchain article for SharePad.

[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: IG Group

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can claim one month of free data. Click here for details.

11 February 2021
By Maynard Paton

For some time now IG Group has been flashing on my SharePad filters.

According to my screens, the spread-betting firm offers:

  • High margins;
  • Decent returns on equity;
  • Cash-rich accounts;
  • Attractive five-year growth;
  • A lack of past acquisitions, and;
  • A modest P/E.

Those characteristics are an unusual mix in a market presently bereft of obvious quality bargains.

Let’s take a closer look.

Read my full IG Group article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

[SharePad] Small-Cap Spotlight Report: LoopUp

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can claim one month of free data. Click here for details.

29 January 2021
By Maynard Paton

I have started a series of occasional articles for SharePad in which I shine an investigative spotlight on particular small-caps.

My aim is to demonstrate how to analyse companies in SharePad and beyond to help you become a more informed investor.

I start with LoopUp, a £44 million developer of software for remote meetings and conference calls.

The other month the company issued a sales warning that caused a 50% share-price crash.

LoopUp should have been a pandemic winner last year selling its remote-meeting systems… so why has the company disappointed?

Read my full LoopUp article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Avon Rubber

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can claim one month of free data. Click here for details.

21 January 2021
By Maynard Paton

Happy 2021!

I trust SharePad will help bring you good fortune in what could be another twelve months of financial thrills and spills.

As usual I plan to trawl the market for interesting shares that I hope assists your company analysis and stock-picking.

I start the year with Avon Rubber, a FTSE 250 member that has rewarded shareholders handsomely since 2009 but recently experienced a trading wobble.

Read my full Avon Rubber article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

My Portfolio: Year In Review 2020

01 January 2021
By Maynard Paton

Happy New Year!

I trust you enjoyed the festive break and are now ready to battle the market for another twelve months!

This 4,631-word post provides a ‘year in review’ of my current portfolio holdings. I recap how each business performed during 2020 as well as provide a few remarks about valuation. 

These reviews are very useful to write — not least because they help ensure I am still invested for the right reasons! Any upsets I will suffer during 2021 will most likely be caused by the shares I already own rather than any new shares I will buy.

Read more

Q4 2020: 2 Top-Ups And Up 16.9% For 2020

01 January 2021
By Maynard Paton

Happy 2021! I hope you survived last year’s volatile market and you continue to find my blog useful.

A summary of my portfolio’s 2020:

  • Total return of 16.9%*;
  • Eleven holdings recorded a gain while one holding recorded a loss;
  • Returns ranged from Daejan, up 43.5%, to System1, down 9.6%;
  • Two shares were topped-up: S&U and System1, and;
  • One share was sold entirely: Daejan.

(*Performance calculated using quoted bid prices and includes all dealing costs, withholding taxes, broker-account fees and paid dividends)

I publish a portfolio review after every quarter (Q1, Q2 and Q3), and this post recaps my October/November/December activity and my 2020 performance.

Read more

SYSTEM1: Remarkable Q2 May Lead To 8x P/E And Potential Recovery Helped By ITV Progress, New Clients And Net Cash

11 December 2020
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for System1 (SYS1):

  • A pandemic-disrupted first half, albeit with headline numbers that disguised a remarkable return to profitability during Q2.
  • Revenue improvements within the Communications and UK segments suggest the tie-up with ITV is working.
  • A bold pricing structure, greater ambition clarity and even improved film-making may explain why adidas has become a client.
  • The accounts are in reasonable shape, with significant net cash, positive cash generation and perhaps a decent profit margin following various cost savings.
  • Extrapolating the Q2 profit leads to a lowly 8x multiple and intriguing recovery/upside possibilities. I have bought more shares.

Read more

TASTY: Survival Rests On Landlords, Barclays, Vaccinations And Christmas Burgers After H1 Covid Cash Burn Implies June 2021 Receivership

09 December 2020
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Tasty (TAST):

  • Revenue down 59% led to a £10m operating loss after the pandemic guaranteed an awful performance.
  • Cash of £3.2m and six-month cash burn of £1.6m implies TAST will run out of money by June 2021.
  • Immediate survival hopes seem dependent on landlord negotiations, CVA hints, a loan from Barclays, UK vaccinations and Christmas burgers delivered to your door.
  • One pandemic positive: management has been forced/allowed to instigate much-needed changes to an underperforming restaurant estate.
  • The £4m market cap could be a bargain, assuming government restrictions are lifted, rents are reset, competition is reduced and a recovery one day takes place. I continue to hold.

Read more

MOUNTVIEW ESTATES: Significant Gross-Margin Improvements During Pandemic-Affected H1 May Underpin Possible NAV Of Up To £225 Per Share

04 December 2020
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Mountview Estates (MTVW):

  • A pandemic-affected H1 that showed revenue down 23% and profit down 18% following procedural delays to property sales.
  • A maintained dividend, a lack for furloughed staff and rents up 1% did not signal inherent lockdown trouble. 
  • Significant gross-margin enhancements may reflect an underlying step-change in performance and have favourable implications for valuation. 
  • Expenditure on property purchases has picked up, with management hopeful of acquiring “exceptional opportunities”. Debt levels remain modest.
  • Book value inched to a record £98 per share, although new profit assumptions now point to a balance sheet possibly worth up to £225 per share. I continue to hold.

Read more

[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Manolete Partners

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can claim one month of free data. Click here for details.

20 November 2020
By Maynard Paton

I am always looking for ‘multi-baggers’ — investments that can double, triple, quadruple or more.

And here’s some very good news: I have stumbled on a company that can find them for me.

Not just the occasional five-bagger or ten-bagger mind, but 20-baggers.

It’s incredible stuff, especially as the track record of success extends for many years and the gains are typically realised within twelve months.

The company behind these multi-baggers is Manolete Partners, which I discovered by employing a very straightforward SharePad screen.

Read my full Manolete Partners article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton

BIOVENTIX: Very Satisfactory FY 2020 Showcases Record 79% Margin, 5th Consecutive Annual Special Dividend And Webinar Remarks Of Troponin Sales Quadrupling By FY 2022

12 November 2020
By Maynard Paton

Results summary for Bioventix (BVXP):

  • Very satisfactory FY 2020 figures, although H2 growth subsided to mid-single-digits after the pandemic reduced demand for routine blood tests.
  • A 21% final-dividend lift plus a special payout for the fifth consecutive year underpinned a generally positive outlook.
  • Revenue from vitamin D gained 10% and may finally have “plateaued”, while troponin sales quadrupling within the next two years is apparently “plausible“.   
  • The books remain in excellent shape with record 79% margins, robust cash flow, a £5m cash buffer and no debt.
  • The ace financials and predictable customer income leaves an understandably lofty P/E of 32. I continue to hold.

Read more

[SharePad] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: Jarvis Securities

***ShareScope New Subscriber Special Offer***
Readers of my blog can claim one month of free data. Click here for details.

05 November 2020
By Maynard Paton

Today I have returned to one of my favourite SharePad screens.

This screen applies two ratios favoured by ‘quality’ investors — operating margin and return on equity (ROE).

The main filter criteria are:

  • An operating margin (latest and 10-year average) of 20% or more, and;
  • An ROE (latest and 10-year average) of 20% or more.

Any business with a margin and ROE consistently above 20% is probably quite special.

I ran the screen and decided to study Jarvis Securities, a small stock-broker best known for x-o.co.uk.

Read my full Jarvis Securities article for SharePad.

Maynard Paton