Pennant International: Why I Sold

20 March 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on Pennant International (PEN).

Event: Annual results published 17 March

Summary: Headline results as expected, but they hid a weaker second half and some disconcerting cash-flow movements. The figures contained plenty of other irritations and worries, while the chairman’s statement was notable for what it did not say. All told, the results carried too many signs of profit trouble ahead and I sense PEN could return to its haphazard ways witnessed between 2000 and 2009. I have sold.

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French Connection: I Still Think The Shares Could Top 100p

17 March 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on French Connection (FCCN).

Event: Annual results published 17 March

Summary: Mixed results. The Retail division was subdued, and gave a disappointing second-half performance. However, trading at the Wholesale and Licensing divisions appeared promising. There was further welcome progress on cost cutting, too. This turnaround has still to really turn, and I’ve trimmed my recovery assumptions. But the upside potential remains sizeable. I continue to hold. 

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Ashmore: 66% Margins And £547m Net Cash

11 March 2015
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Ashmore (ASHM).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

Majestic financials: Accounts showcase 66% average margins and £547m net cash and investments
Hefty insider ownership: Founder/chief exec enjoys £808m shareholding
Interesting valuation: The shares offer a trailing dividend yield of 5.9%

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Goodwin: All That Matters Now Is What Price To Pay

04 March 2015
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Goodwin (GDWN).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

Illustrious financial history: Profits have surged 16-fold since 2000
Owner-orientated bosses: Family management boasts 53%/£107m shareholding
Interesting valuation: The shares are 32% off their high, leaving the trailing P/E at 11

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Shoe Zone: Why This £69m Shareholding Could Be Worth Watching

02 March 2015
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Shoe Zone (SHOE).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

Simple business: It’s a retailer of cheap shoes
Cash-rich: Latest balance sheet showed cash of £9m and no debt
Owner-aligned bosses: Family management boasts 55%/£69m shareholding

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Tristel: Is There A Further 46% Upside?

25 February 2015
By Maynard Paton

Here’s a an update on Tristel (TSTL).

Event: Half-year results published 25 February.

Summary: Figures met my expectations, showing good all-round progress. Management commentary noticeably upbeat — confidence underlined by first RNS mentions of group sales target and ‘North America’. Firm’s healthcare products remain attractive to investors — repeat purchase and patent protected. Share-price upside could be attractive if growth forecasts come good. I continue to hold.

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Microgen: High Margins And Cash Rich But Not For Me

24 February 2015
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m continuing my hunt for Watch List shares with a look at Microgen (MCGN).

Here are the initial attractions that prompted this research:

High margins: 30% reported for 2013
Cash rich: Latest update reported £25m net cash
Veteran boss: Executive chairman appointed during 1998 and boasts £7m shareholding

As usual, I’m applying a question-and-answer template to help me pinpoint companies that match the criteria set out in How I Invest. I’m looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

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Latchways Kick-Starts My Watch List

12 February 2015
By Maynard Paton

So I’ve now reviewed every one of My Shares in my portfolio — see the list of names on the right-hand side of this page.

That means I can finally kick-start My Watch List, the benefits of which I explained in this post.

I’ve decided to adopt a question-and-answer template for My Watch List write-ups. That way I can easily pinpoint any worthwhile shares according to How I Invest.

I am looking for as many Yes answers as possible.

I’m starting today with Latchways (LTC).

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City of London Investment: 7% Income Plus Vague Hints Of Dividend Lift

12 February 2015
By Maynard Paton

Quick update on City of London Investment (CLIG).

Event: Half-year results published 11 February.

Summary: Figures already heralded by January trading statement — therefore no surprises. Previous guidance all repeated. Still on course to pay 24p per share dividend and support 7% dividend yield at 335p. Vague hints of dividend increase now emerging. Cash position remains high. P/E remains modest. I continue to hold. 

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M Winkworth: My 92% Return From London’s Property Boom

6 February 2015
By Maynard Paton

Today I’m studying the smallest holding in my portfolio — M Winkworth (WINK).

In fact, this £16m estate-agency business represents less than 1% of my portfolio… and so is unlikely to send my wealth into orbit even if it does multi-bag!

I bought WINK at 90p during June and July 2011, but then sold 70% of my shares between August 2013 and February 2014 at an average of 173p.

At the time I was a bit worried about WINK’s substantial exposure to London’s booming housing market — and I probably would have sold the rest of my shares were it not for the price dropping to today’s 123p. Including some very useful dividends collected along the way, my total return to date has been a respectable 92%.

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Andrews Sykes: My 12.7% Income From A 94-Year-Old Tycoon

4 February 2015
By Maynard Paton

You may have gathered by now that I do like my companies to have hefty insider ownership.

My theory is simple: I’m convinced directors are more likely to run their businesses successfully — and are therefore more likely to deliver satisfactory returns to outside investors such as you and me — if they boast significant shareholdings themselves.

I’m certainly hoping that’s going to be the case at Andrews Sykes (ASY), where the chairman and his family own 90% — yes 90%! — of the company.

Such shareholder dominance will of course mean this £127m hire business won’t be for everyone. Indeed, the tycoon in charge has adopted a very haphazard dividend policy and does not believe in standard boardroom governance. He is also very old at 94.

Nonetheless, a closer look ASY’s accounts reveals exactly why he wants to own so much of this company. Super margins, immense cash flow and lofty returns on capital in particular mark ASY out as a top-quality operator — and drew me in during May 2013 at an average of 233p.

So far at least, the threat of being ‘done over’ by a boardroom fiefdom has not emerged.

Instead, I have enjoyed a satisfactory return, with the shares rising to 300p — plus a sizeable 29.7p dividend for 2013 representing a lovely 12.7% income on my purchase price.

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FW Thorpe: I Ignored My Own Advice And Missed A 500% Return

30 January 2015
By Maynard Paton

It’s funny how the dullest companies can produce some of the very best returns for patient investors.

Take FW Thorpe (TFW) for example. I wrote about this obscure lighting business for my former employer back in 2004, when the market cap was £26m and the share price was 23p (adjusted for a later 10-for-1 split).

Today, TFW’s market cap is £156m and the price is 135p — a 500% return if you include dividends collected along the way.

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Pennant International: Why I Bought A 12-Bagger

27 January 2015
By Maynard Paton

It’s not often I look at a 12-bagger and decide it’s still worth buying.

But that is exactly what happened when I pinpointed Pennant International (PEN) the other year.

To cut to the chase, this £23m military equipment specialist had suffered badly during the banking crash and the shares had plunged to 6p. But then a succession of upbeat results and contract wins eventually caught me eye and I bought in at 74p during October and November 2013.

What particularly appealed to me was the group landing its largest-ever contract alongside results that spoke of “good prospects for the short, medium and long term”. It’s quite rare to see such ‘multi-horizon’ optimism within a company RNS!

Also prompting me to buy were management’s sizeable shareholding, the firm’s asset-flush balance sheet, a focus on organic growth and a lowly market valuation.

While PEN’s expansion looks to have paused temporarily in 2014, the group’s overall prospects remain positive and I’m pleased to say the appealing executives, financials and valuation remain in place today.

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Burford Capital: I’m Projecting 9.1% Annualised Returns To 2019

23 January 2015
By Maynard Paton

*** EDIT: 26 FEB 2015: I HAVE SINCE SOLD THIS SHARE. PLEASE READ THE COMMENT SECTION AT THE END OF THE POST *** 

Time now to delve into Burford Capital (BUR), a £266m litigation-financing business that joined my portfolio following some very scant research.

The basis of my investment was:

  • Litigation funding was a nascent, fast-growing industry. At the time, BUR said business was “booming”.
  • The firm was claiming fantastic returns on invested capital (some 70%!).
  • I assumed BUR’s operations would not be affected by recessions or market crashes.
  • A corporate reorganisation had aligned the main executives with shareholders.
  • The shares traded at book value.
  • Good future progress might see the shares re-rated well above book value.
  • A fund managed by ace investor Neil Woodford owned 45%.

It wasn’t in-depth stuff and luckily I’ve managed to enjoy a reasonable return. I bought between November 2012 and February 2013 at an average of 101p, and I then sold 51% of my holding at 120p between October 2013 and January 2014. The recent market price is 130p.

However…I don’t like to rely on scant research with my investments. So I’ve finally got to grips with BUR and its convoluted accounts to gauge the opportunity ahead, and in particular to understand…

…why the company’s fantastic returns on invested capital haven’t translated into fantastic share-price growth!

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