FW THORPE: Share Price At 2016 Levels Prompts Intriguing Buyback Remarks After ‘Marginally Ahead’ H1 2025 Discloses Welcome 65% Zemper Profit Growth Alongside £52m Net Cash

28 September 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2025 results summary for FW Thorpe (TFW):

  • As predicted, a “marginally ahead” H1 performance that reported revenue up 1%, profit up 2% and the dividend up 3.5% following mixed progress within the group’s divisions.
  • After a few subdued years, Zemper was this H1’s welcome highlight — the Spanish subsidiary reported revenue up 13% and profit up 65% to reflect the initial promise expected from the significant c£35m purchase cost.
  • Elsewhere, Thorlux was held back by SchahlLED, the Dutch businesses could not repeat their bumper efforts from last year while Ratio suffered increased losses that prompted the joint venture to undertake a debt-for-equity swap.
  • The accounts remain in very good shape, showing an acceptable 15% group margin, healthy £52m net cash, commendable stock control, a favourable tax charge and yet another small gain from selling surplus assets above book value.
  • Management remarks of undertaking buybacks if the shares “significantly undervalue” the group’s prospects are intriguing, given the 300p price was first achieved during 2016 and might be overlooking TFW’s distinguished operating history. I continue to hold.

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[ShareScope] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: CHURCHILL CHINA

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18 September 2025
By Maynard Paton

I am once again looking for ‘value bargains’ and revisiting a screen that identifies companies trading at less than book value.

Importantly, this screen attempts to avoid ‘value traps’ by demanding the shares offer net cash, dividend payments and a history of trading above book value.

The exact filter criteria I redeployed were:

  • A price to net tangible assets of no more than 1;
  • A dividend being paid during the most recent year;
  • A 10-year average price to net tangible assets of at least 1;
  • Net borrowings less total leases of no more than 0 (i.e. a net cash position excluding IFRS 16 lease obligations), and;
  • A share price denominated in pounds sterling.

This time ShareScope returned 14 companies:

(Source: ShareScope)

I selected Churchill China because, among the 14 shortlisted companies, its shares had previously traded at the highest average multiple of net tangible assets.

Sure enough, Churchill’s 430p shares are priced at 21% less than the 545p per share net tangible asset value:

(Source: ShareScope)

And yet the shares have in the past traded at beyond 5x net tangible value.

Let’s take a closer look.

Read my full CHURCHILL CHINA article for ShareScope >>

Maynard Paton

S & U: FY 2025 Profit Down 29% Leaves Shares At 0.95x NAV To Offer Possible 10-15% CAGR Supported By ‘Minimal’ Exposure To Regulatory Redress, Post-FY ‘Above Budget’ Lending And An ‘Expected Resurgence In Profitability’

02 September 2025
By Maynard Paton

FY 2025 results summary for S & U (SUS):

  • An FY performance blighted by ongoing regulatory matters and an adverse Court of Appeal judgment, with FY motor-finance lending down 38% that prompted FY profit to drop 29% and led to yet another dividend cut.
  • Collection rates, up-to-date accounts and Stage 3 impairments within the motor-finance division all moved significantly in the wrong direction, but could soon recover following a shift towards lower-risk borrowers alongside a favourable Supreme Court ruling.
  • Indeed, SUS’s exposure to substantial regulatory redress now appears “minimal” while post-FY statements talked of an “expected resurgence in profitability” through “above budget” motor-finance lending on what has become a “level competitive playing field“.
  • The property-bridging subsidiary meanwhile delivered “excellent” progress, with record lending at higher rates leading to FY profit surging 50%, a possible 65% pre-tax return on equity and divisional loans supporting 35% of the group’s loan book.
  • The shares yield 5%-plus and are valued at 0.95x NAV, and may offer a 10-15% CAGR should the payout be maintained and future NAV growth eventually persuade the market cap to once again trade above book. I continue to hold. 

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ANDREWS SYKES: Workforce Reduced To 20-Year Low Delivers Record £170k Employee Productivity As ‘Unseasonally Cool Summer Weather’ Leaves FY 2024 Dividend Unchanged To Support 5% Yield

17 August 2025
By Maynard Paton

FY 2024 results summary for Andrews Sykes (ASY):

  • A rather mixed FY, as “unseasonally cool summer weather“, French depot closures and currency movements reduced revenue by 4% and kept the dividend at 25.9p per share for the third consecutive year.
  • UK progress was once again supported by water pumps, income from which gained 2% to set a seventh consecutive FY record. A new water-treatment service meanwhile offers promise.
  • The heatwave absence cut sales throughout Europe by as much as 28%, although fresh local management lifted Middle Eastern income by a welcome 37% and established a new Saudi venture.
  • Revenue per employee reached a new £170k high after the workforce was reduced to its lowest level since at least 2004. The improved staff productivity helped deliver a record 30.5% FY margin.
  • The 5% yield could be complemented by further special dividends should net cash once again top £30m, but the group’s limited free float and distinctive corporate governance have rarely led to a premium rating. I continue to hold.

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[ShareScope] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: MS INTERNATIONAL

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09 August 2025
By Maynard Paton

This month I have gone ‘back to basics’ by employing an old screen that identifies companies with strong balance sheets, robust margins and rising dividends.

I must admit I was disappointed my three ‘quality’ criteria returned only 21 names:

(Source: ShareScope)

The exact filters I applied for this search were:

  • Net borrowings less total leases of no more than 0 (i.e. a net cash position excluding IFRS 16 lease obligations);
  • A trailing 12-month operating margin of 15% or more, and;
  • A minimum five-year record of annual dividend improvements.

I added an extra column to the screening results to sort the 21 names on five-year share-price performance.

I selected MS International because its shares had surged an amazing 838% since July 2020:

(Source: ShareScope)

Let’s take a closer look.

Read my full MS INTERNATIONAL article for ShareScope >>

Maynard Paton

M WINKWORTH: FY 2024 Reveals Profit Up 24% After Sales Transactions Rebound 17% And Cites Potential ‘Shrinkage In Rentals’ To Contrast With Resurgent Foxtons’ £15m/Year Lettings Acquisition Ambition

27 July 2025
By Maynard Paton

FY 2024 results summary for M Winkworth (WINK):

  • Sales transactions rebounding 17% involving property worth £3.4b helped ensure a positive FY, with franchise-network income up 12%, revenue up 17%, underlying profit up 24% and the dividend up 5%. 
  • Assisted by branch resales to “best-in-class” agents, the “vast majority” of London branches now boast WINK’s necessary top-three local position. The average commission income from all branches meanwhile reached a new £628k high.
  • A potential “shrinkage in rentals” due to new legislation could create a greater dependency on sales transactions and differentiate WINK from resurgent rival Foxtons, which plans to strengthen its leading market share by spending £15m a year acquiring further lettings agencies.
  • Despite minimal profits from company-owned offices, the FY margin was a respectable 21% following commendable control of employee — and director! — pay. Greater loans to franchisees meanwhile reduced net cash to £4m, equivalent to a sizeable 38% of FY revenue. 
  • Post-FY statements signalling FY 2025 profit advancing 10% and dividends up at least 7% support a 6%-plus yield and possible dividend cover of only 1.14x, all of which re-emphasises the board’s preference for income. I continue to hold.

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[ShareScope] Small-Cap Spotlight Report: CAMELLIA

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17 July 2025
By Maynard Paton

“I stress the long-term advisedly, because our entire emphasis is towards the development of a worldwide group of businesses which by their very nature require their managements to take a long view.

Many companies in the group are in excess of 100 years old. These enterprises have acquired particular skills, traditions and ethos, and we see ourselves more in the nature of custodians or trustees than as owners.

That is, we do not see these assets as objects or commodities or bits of paper that can be traded, but rather as living entities from which, if properly managed, we might earn an attractive return on our investment.”

You could be forgiven for thinking that statement was written by Warren Buffett to his Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. But the author was in fact Gordon Fox, then the chairman of Camellia, back in 1990.

By employing a very long-term investment approach, Mr Fox enjoyed great success building Camellia into a mini Berkshire-type conglomerate. But rather than textiles, insurance and banks, Mr Fox instead focused primarily on agriculture…

…and between 1969 and 1999 compounded Camellia’s net asset value (NAV) from less than £500k to £170 million — equivalent to a 21% average annual growth rate.

Camellia’s NAV has since advanced to approximately £300 million and is chock-full of cash and investments…

…yet the share price has declined 60% since its 2018 peak:

(Source: ShareScope)

Investors can today buy at a 50%-plus discount to the value of the balance sheet.

So what exactly has happened at this NAV ‘compounder’? Is the NAV really worth £300 million? And have the £54 shares become a bargain?

Let’s take a closer look.

Read my full CAMELLIA article for ShareScope >>

CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT: Further KPI Failure Prompts Welcome Leadership Change After H1 2025 Suffers $564m FuM Outflow And Leaves Barely Covered Dividend Yielding 9%

12 July 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2025 results summary for City of London Investment (CLIG):

  • A positive H1 performance versus the comparable H1, with average funds under management (FuM) up 12% helping revenue gain 9%, profit improve 13% and the dividend to be sustained at 11p per share for the fifth consecutive H1.
  • Net client withdrawals at $564m were the largest six-month outflow since at least H1 2018, and reiterated how client CAGRs at 5-8% and gross fees at 0.72% are no longer that appealing versus the “expansion of passive options“.
  • A further failure to achieve the group’s main KPI looks to have prompted the search for a new chief executive, which offers hope marketing efforts can be enhanced to attract elusive new customers and the “team approach” can be assessed to improve client returns. 
  • Despite talk of cost savings, expenses continue to creep higher and cash flow just about covers the annual 33p per share dividend with the weaker USD. CLIG has meanwhile flattered its own dividend-cover projection by lifting the market-growth assumption from 0% to 5%.
  • The persistent outflow of client money (another $212m during Q3 2025), the tight dividend cover and sudden leadership transition have kept the ‘value trap’ shares languishing at 2007 levels and yielding 9%. I continue to hold.

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Q2 2025: How I (Now) Invest

01 July 2025
By Maynard Paton

Happy Tuesday! I hope the first six months of 2025 have been positive for your shares.

A summary of my portfolio’s first half and Q2 trading:

  • H1 return: -11.1%*
  • Q2 trades: 2 Top-ups (Bioventix at £24.08 and S & U at £14.64).

(*Performance calculated using quoted bid prices and includes all dealing costs, withholding taxes, broker-account fees, paid dividends and cash interest)

What a difference a year makes. Twelve months ago I was trumpeting “my best-ever H1 [+20%] since I commenced this blog at the beginning of 2015“.

Today I am staring at my weakest relative six-month performance since I commenced this blog at the beginning of 2015! Year to date my portfolio is down 11.1% while the FTSE 100 has powered 9.5% higher. I will now have to re-read whether I am a good investor :-(

This year’s underperformance follows the rollercoaster share price at System1, in which I have an oversized position because of its multi-bagger potential. That potential took a knock during April following an ominous Q4 update that implied a slowing of key revenue streams and talked of a “downside risk” to client budgets.

Let’s just say System1‘s FY results and Q1 update next week are likely to prove pivotal to my portfolio’s 2025 performance.

Newsflow from my other holdings has been mixed, with a 10% dividend lift from M Winkworth somewhat counterbalancing flat payouts at Andrews Sykes and Mountview Estates. And despite a dividend cut at S & U, the specialist moneylender has been my best performer this year!

Possibly the most intriguing announcement during the last three months was the sudden and unexplained departure of the chief executive of City of London Investment.

Abrupt exits do not occur if all is going well and I am braced for unfavourable short-term news. But I welcome the board’s decision to seek fresh leadership to help find new clients, as this fund manager’s investing style is commendable and its cash/bond returns have been impressive.

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SYSTEM1: Ominous Q4 2025 Update Revealing ‘Downside Risk’ to Client Budgets Overshadows Record H1 2025 Showcasing Upgraded ‘Illustrative Growth Scenario’ And Tantalising 20-30% Platform-Revenue CAGR Ambition

17 June 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2025 results summary for System1 (SYS1):

  • A record H1 for both revenue and profit, after Test Your Ad income gained 53%, the gross margin once again exceeded its 85% target and employee productivity reached a £229k high.
  • News of a £2m “additional discretionary investment” led to an upgraded “illustrative growth scenario“, whereby a tantalising 20-30% platform-revenue CAGR ambition could now apparently lead to a “longer term” £36m Ebitda.
  • But the £2m “discretionary” investment actually appears mandatory, given the lack of obvious ‘fame building’ options for Test Your Innovation and a startling admission of needing to further “professionalise” the workforce. 
  • Although January’s Q3 update raised FY 2025 profit guidance, April’s Q4 update revealed a sudden sensitivity to the global economy alongside ominous revenue performances from Test Your Ad, the United States and ‘data-led’ consultancy.
  • The shares trade on an estimated 15x P/E, which seems to adequately reflect SYS1’s anticipated “strong revenue growth” for FY 2026 mixed with a greater “downside risk” to client budgets. I continue to hold.

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MOUNTVIEW ESTATES: New Non-Exec’s ‘Keen Focus On Governance’ Awaited As H1 2025 Discloses Another Sub-60% Property-Sales Gross Margin, Protest Votes Reach 33% And The £97 Shares Remain 6% Below NAV

20 May 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2025 results summary for Mountview Estates (MTVW):

  • Not the greatest of H1s, as “economic difficulties” and fewer property disposals combined to cut both revenue and profit by 5%, although the interim dividend was maintained and net asset value (NAV) crept to a record £103 per share.
  • Property sales delivered a sub-60% gross margin for the fourth consecutive H1, which increasingly suggests ‘reversionary’ gains from regulated tenancies have inherently reduced and/or MTVW has simply overpaid for many past purchases.
  • Properties bought and sold following the 2014 valuation continue to realise modest gains, with no obvious adverse trends concerning transaction costs and tenancy mix. The absence of another valuation has now left two non-execs ‘short-changed’ by selling shares below NAV.
  • A new non-exec with a “keen focus on governance, risk and compliance” provides hope the board may adopt some fresh thinking on shareholder engagement, estate valuations and director pay, especially as protest votes have reached a record 33% of the share count. 
  • Recent share purchases by the chief executive may have signalled a tantalising buying opportunity, while the £97 price now offers a 5.4% income, trades 6% below NAV and may be worth £169 if the group’s properties were all sold today at their ‘vacant possession’ value. I continue to hold.

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[ShareScope] Screening For My Next Long-Term Winner: ELIXIRR INTERNATIONAL

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17 May 2025
By Maynard Paton

I remarked the other month how most flotations had suffered badly during the last few years.

ShareScope lists 233 shares that joined the stock market since the start of 2020, of which 178 (76%) currently trade below their listing price — including 72 that have lost 80% or more of their value.

I consequently devised a ShareScope screen to rummage through the IPO carnage to find potential buying opportunities.

I sought companies that had:

  • Floated since the start of 2020;
  • A market cap of more than £50 million;
  • Net cash;
  • A positive operating margin;
  • Director holdings of 10% or more, and;
  • A GBP-denominated share price.

When I first employed this screen I selected BIG Technologies, in part because of its then 49% post-IPO share-price slump. BIG’s shares then took a further tumble after firing its chief executive for misleading the board!

I therefore decided this time to study a flotation winner!

(Source: ShareScope)

I selected Elixirr International entirely because of its impressive 244% post-IPO share-price gain.

Let’s take a closer look.

Read my full ELIXIRR INTERNATIONAL article for ShareScope >>

Maynard Paton

ANDREWS SYKES: Shareholders Left To Collect 5% Yield While Awaiting Beneficial/Extreme Weather After ‘Milder Winter Temperatures’ Create Standstill H1 2024 And Keep Interim Dividend At 11.9p Per Share For 11th Consecutive Year

29 April 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2024 results summary for Andrews Sykes (ASY):

  • A standstill performance, as “milder winter temperatures and a slow start to the summer cooling season” trimmed revenue by 1%, left profit unchanged and kept the dividend at 11.9p per share for the eleventh consecutive H1.  
  • Both the UK (revenue down 2%) and Europe (revenue down 4%) succumbed to the moderate weather, while fresh management continued the Middle East’s welcome turnaround (revenue up 38%).
  • Controlled cost of sales, lower depreciation plus disposal gains led to a healthy 25% operating margin — the highest for an H1 since 2008 — to underline the group’s premium 24/7/365 “emergency” service.
  • The very respectable accounts now showcase net cash at £21m, but the figure may have to reach £30m before the 91% Murray family shareholders declare another special dividend.   
  • A possible 12x P/E and 5.3% yield do not appear expensive as beneficial/extreme weather conditions are awaited, although the limited free float and distinctive corporate governance have rarely led to a premium rating. I continue to hold.

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M WINKWORTH: £350k One-Off Fee Helps H1 2024 Profit Gain 24% As Promising H2 2024 And Company-Owned Offices Targeting FY 2025 ‘Good Profitability’ Support 6%-Plus Dividend Yield

15 April 2025
By Maynard Paton

H1 2024 results summary for M Winkworth (WINK):

  • Greater “sales agreed” activity alongside a one-off £350k fee supported an improved H1, with franchise-network income up 6%, revenue up 20%, profit up 24% and the dividend up 3%. 
  • The targeting of “good profitability” at all four company-owned offices for FY 2025 is very encouraging, especially as three of the offices reported losses during FY 2023 and the returns from the fourth have been superb once a profit was achieved.
  • Although four branches were re-franchised to new agents and a further seven look set to follow, WINK’s franchise network continues to lose ground to rival Foxtons as progress seemingly becomes more dependent on higher sales values and rising property rents.
  • Dividend cover around 1.1x and net cash equivalent to a sizeable 41% of trailing twelve-month revenue continue to emphasise the board’s preference for income and the cautious approach to franchise-network expansion. 
  • Post-H1 statements indicating a promising H2 2024 and a possible bumper Q1 2025 support a 6%-plus dividend yield, accompanied perhaps by vague bid potential following last year’s appointments of two M&A non-execs. I continue to hold.

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Q1 2025: Finding Ammunition For My Elephant Gun

02 April 2025
By Maynard Paton

Happy Wednesday! I trust your shares have performed better than mine since the start of the year. 

A summary of my portfolio’s first quarter:

  • Q1 return: -6.5%*
  • Q1 trades: 1 Top-up (Bioventix at £30) and 1 Sell (Tristel at 352p).

(*Performance calculated using quoted bid prices and includes all dealing costs, withholding taxes, broker-account fees, paid dividends and cash interest)

I will do well to catch up with the FTSE 100 during 2025. The blue-chip index has powered 6% higher during this Q1, outperforming every one of my holdings. Indeed, seven of my shares declined despite the rising market.

Newsflow from my holdings has been mostly unremarkable, as demonstrated by the modest dividend improvements or unchanged payouts at Bioventix, City of London Investment, Mincon, FW Thorpe and M Winkworth. S & U has meanwhile continued to trim its dividend following adverse regulatory matters. 

The subdued progress has left most of my holdings trading at prices first seen during 2017 or before, with their ratings the lowest for years. I am not short of top-up ideas.

Picking winners has certainly become harder. A quick check on ShareScope reveals only 191 of the 552 FTSE All-Share constituents — 35% — delivered share-price gains during this Q1. Over the last three years, the proportion is a woeful 33%.

You may not be surprised to learn that picking AIM winners has been even harder. During the last three years, just 20% of AIM-traded shares have moved higher. 

Nonetheless, buyers remain out there for the right opportunities. I wrote about Filtronic recently, mostly to remind myself that multi-baggers do still exist!

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